华南西部地区震群活动与中强震关系研究  

Study on the Relationship Between Earthquake Swarm Activity and Moderate-strong Earthquakes in Western South China

作　　者：郭培兰 黄惠宁 李莎 苏珊 GUO Peilan;HUANG Huining;LI Sha;SU Shan(Earthquake Agency of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region,Nanning 530022,China)

机构地区：[1]广西壮族自治区地震局,南宁530022

出　　处：《华南地震》2022年第4期86-93,共8页South China Journal of Seismology

基　　金：广西科技攻关计划项目红水河流域水库地震特征的精细研究以天峨至大化段为例(桂科AB1850042);地震科技星火项目计划(XH22004YA);广西局科研合同制项目(202102)联合资助。

摘　　要：通过系统研究华南西部地区震群活动与中强震的关系,发现华南西部地区震群活动主震震级在M_(L)3左右;震群活动与区域强震关系密切,小震群频度的起伏可以反映区域地震活动水平的强弱;华南西部地区震群频次超阈值2为异常,可做中短期预测,通过预测效能检验。区域震群对中强震地点的预测有积极意义:震前2年,震群呈条带状分布,中强震发生在震群条带上,震群时间和地点距中强震都是由远到近,时间跨度超1年,最远距离380 km,中强震震级比震群高2~3级。The relationship between earthquake swarm activity and moderate-strong earthquakes in Guangxi is systematically studied.The results show that the magnitude of the main earthquake of earthquake swarm activity in Guangxi is not high,about M_(L)3;the activity of earthquake swarm is closely related to regional strong earthquakes,and the fluctuation of the frequency of small earthquake swarm can reflect the strength of regional seismicity;the earthquake swarm frequency in Guangxi exceeding the threshold 2 is regarded as anomaly,which can be predicted in the medium and short term,and passes the prediction efficiency test.Regional earthquake swarm is of positive significance to the prediction of moderate and strong earthquake sites:Two years before the earthquake,the earthquake swarm is distributed in strips,and moderate-strong earthquakes occured in the earthquake swarm strips;the time and location of the earthquake swarm are from far to near,with a time span of more than one yeaand the maximum distance of 380 km;the magnitude of moderate-strong earthquakes is 2-3 higher than that of earthquake swarm.

关 键 词：广西地区 震群 中强震 统计检验 预测效能 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]