拜登政府对伊朗政策与伊朗核问题  

Biden Administration's Iran Policy and the Iran Nuclear Issue

作　　者：岳汉景 Yue Hanjing(School of Government Management,Shanghai University of Political Science and Law)

机构地区：[1]上海政法学院政府管理学院

出　　处：《国际关系研究》2022年第5期92-113,157,158,共24页Journal of International Relations

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重要国家和区域重大研究专项(项目编号:21VGQ009)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：拜登政府继承的特朗普政府对伊朗政策遗产,决定了拜登政府的对伊朗政策虽然不能完全继续特朗普政府对伊朗的极限施压,但也不宜一下子大幅减压。美国国会中共和党和部分民主党人士,以及美国中东盟友以色列等国均反对对伊朗减压。对叙利亚施压的现实需要,对外政策上突出人权外交的需要,也要求拜登政府不宜对伊朗大幅减压。上述因素使得拜登政府对伊朗大幅减压的动力不足。这导致拜登政府对重返伊核协议实际上并不积极,其只愿意解除所谓与核有关的制裁,除非伊朗同意达成一个“更长且更强”的协议。受此影响,截至2021年6月20日,维也纳会谈虽进行了六轮,但并未取得实质性成果。强硬保守派莱希当选总统后,伊朗在核问题上的立场更加强硬。拜登政府此时虽然表现得比伊朗更急于进行谈判,但仍然缺少对伊朗大幅减压的足够动力。在此情况下,维也纳会谈虽然于2021年11月29日艰难重启,但美伊双方仍在个别关键问题上僵持不下。加上俄乌冲突对伊核问题的负面影响,会谈的推进并不顺利,就“重返”达成协议的前景仍不明朗。但即使关于“重返”的谈判最终失败了,关于伊核问题的谈判还是要以某种方式进行下去。The Biden administration inherited legacies of the Trump administration's Iran policy.This determines that although the Biden administration's policy cannot fully continue the extreme pressure exerted by the Trump administration toward Iran,it would not be totally abandoned immediately as well.Republicans and some of the Democrats in the U.S.Congress,as well as Israel and other U.S.allies in the Middle East,are opposed to reducing pressure on Iran.The realistic demand to put pressure on Syria and emphasis on human rights in promoting foreign policy also restrict a sharp policy shift.The above factors make the Biden administration less motivated to significantly reduce the pressure on Iran.As a result,the Biden administration is not active in returning to the deal,only willing to lift the so-called nuclear-related sanctions,unless Iran agrees to reach a“longer and stronger”agreement.Therefore,though six rounds of talks had been held in Vienna as of June 20th,2021,no substantive results had been achieved yet.Since the hard-line conservative Raisi was elected president,Iran takes a negative attitude towards the nuclear negotiations.Although the Biden administration was more eager to negotiate,it lacks sufficient incentives to reduce the pressure on Iran significantly.Under this circumstances,although the Vienna Talks re-opened on November 29th,2021 with great difficulty,the United States and Iran remain deadlocked on several key issues.Meanwhile,coupled with negative impacts of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the Iranian nuclear issues,progress of the Talks will not be smooth,and the prospect of achieving an agreement on“return”is still unclear.But even if talks on“return”fail,general talks on Iranian nuclear issue will be carry on in certain ways.

关 键 词：拜登政府 伊朗 美国 伊朗核问题 维也纳会谈 

分 类 号：D871.2[政治法律—政治学] D815.2[政治法律—外交学] D837.3