基于累积前景理论的应急物资路径选择研究  

Research on Emergency Material Path Selection Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory

作　　者：宋少忠 杜影 尚雨晴 辛钢[2] SONG Shao-zhong;DU Ying;SHANG Yu-qing;XIN Gang(Jilin Engineering Normal University,Changchun Jilin 130052,China;Jilin Business and Technology College,Changchun Jilin 130500,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林工程技术师范学院,吉林长春130052 [2]吉林工商学院,吉林长春130500

出　　处：《吉林工程技术师范学院学报》2022年第12期88-93,共6页Journal of Jilin Engineering Normal University

基　　金：吉林省教育厅“十二五”科学技术研究项目(2013394,2012377)。

摘　　要：本文在新冠疫情期间静态封闭管理的背景下,针对多品种、多供应点的应急物资路径选择进行研究。由于累积前景理论是一种非绝对理性的决策手段,更加符合实际情况,因此,本文基于累积前景理论以多参考点进行建模。首先,选取运输时间、路径通过风险值为参考点,构建基于多参考点应急物流模型,主要通过应急物流路径选择综合累积前景值函数筛选出运输路径;然后,在此基础上以物资需求量为参考点计算初步筛选的运输路径前景值,最终挑选出最优路径与物资供应点组合。案例结果表明:多参考点下的累积前景理论模型能有效地为应急物资路径选择问题提供决策方案。a study was made in the paper of the route selection of emergency materials with multiple varieties and multiple supply points under the background of static lock-down management during the COVID-19 pandemic.Because the cumulative prospect theory is a non-absolute rational decision-making method,which is more in line with the actual situation,this paper builds a model with multiple reference points based on the cumulative prospect theory.Firstly,transportation time and the risk value of route passing are selected as reference point to construct an emergency logistics model based on multiple reference point by screening out the transportation routes mainly through the comprehensive cumulative foreground value function of emergency logistics route selection;Then,on this basis,the demand of materials is taken as the reference point to calculate the prospect value of the preliminarily screened transportation route,and finally the combination of the optimal route and the material supply point is selected.The results show that the cumulative prospect theory model with multiple reference points can effectively provide a decision-making scheme for the route selection of emergency materials.

关 键 词：应急物资 路径选择 累积前景理论 多参考点 

分 类 号：U497[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]