返贫风险评价的犹豫模糊EGRAS方法  

Hesitant Fuzzy EGRAS Method for Risk Assessment of Poverty-returning

作　　者：高志方 张泽宇 彭定洪 Gao Zhifang;Zhang Zeyu;Peng Dinghong(Faculty of Management and Economics,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650093,China;Institute of Quality Development,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650093,China)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学管理与经济学院,昆明650093 [2]昆明理工大学质量发展研究院,昆明650093

出　　处：《统计与决策》2022年第22期15-19,共5页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(72261020,71861018);云南省基础研究计划项目(202201AT070190)。

摘　　要：返贫风险评价有助于了解各地返贫风险情况,为政府采取相应的预防措施提供参考。文章从自然、政策、经济及自身主观风险四个方面进行返贫风险影响因素识别,建立评价指标体系,采用犹豫模糊集描述专家评价信息,并构建犹豫模糊余切熵确定指标权重,在此基础上构建了一种基于平均解的犹豫模糊EGRAS方法评价各地区的返贫风险。通过对云南省5个已经脱贫的地区进行实例分析,结果表明:墨江县、屏边县属于中低风险,鲁甸县、勐腊县属于中风险,福贡县属于中高风险。教育水平、技能水平、就业稳定性、自主脱贫意识等是造成各地返贫的主要因素。Risk assessment of poverty-returning helps to understand the risk of returning to poverty in different areas and provide reference for the government to take corresponding preventive measures.This paper identifies the factors affecting the risk of returning to poverty from four aspects of natural risk,policy risk,economic risk and subjective risk to construct the evaluation index system,and then uses the hesitant fuzzy set to describe the expert evaluation information,determining the index weight by constructing hesitant fuzzy cotangent entropy,on the basis of which,a hesitancy fuzzy EGRAS method based on average solution is developed to evaluate the risk of returning to poverty in different regions.Finally,an example analysis is made of five areas in Yunnan Province that have been lifted out of poverty.The results show that Mojiang County and Pingbian County belong to the medium-low risk areas,Ludian County and Mengla County the medium-risk,and Fugong County the medium-high risk,and that education level,skill level,employment stability and independent awareness of poverty alleviation are main factors that lead to the return of poverty in various regions.

关 键 词：返贫风险 犹豫模糊集 平均解距离评价方法 灰色点关联 EGRAS方法 余切熵 

分 类 号：F323.8[经济管理—产业经济]