“三孩”政策对教育规模的影响:面向2035的预测  

The Impact of the "Three-Child" Policy on the Scale of Education:A Prediction of the Year 2035

作　　者：王传毅[1] 辜刘建 俞寅威 Wang Chuanyi;Gu Liujian;Yu Yinwei(the Institute of Education,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100086)

机构地区：[1]清华大学教育研究院,北京100086

出　　处：《教育研究》2022年第11期124-135,共12页Educational Research

基　　金：国家发展和改革委员会社会领域重大课题委托研究“教育强国建设路径和关键节点研究”的研究成果。

摘　　要：基于人口转移矩阵和补偿性生育模型,对“三孩”政策下2021—2035年我国各级教育规模变化进行预测发现,“三孩”政策整体上延缓了人口下降趋势,并且在短期内通过补偿性生育作用提升了出生人口,对学前教育、义务教育规模产生促进作用,较“全面二孩”政策提升了约8%的规模体量。2021—2035年,我国学前教育规模先下降、后上升、再缓慢下降,义务教育规模先基本稳定而后缓慢下降,高中教育在2021—2026年,规模保持基本稳定,2026年之后变化趋势呈扁平状的倒U型曲线,高等教育在学规模逐年稳步上涨。我国政府应结合各级教育规模变化趋势,优化教育资源配置,促进教育事业高质量发展。Based on the population transition matrix and compensatory fertility mechanism modeling,this study predicts the changes in the scales of education at all levels from 2021 to 2035 under the "three-child" policy. The results show the following:On the whole,the "three-child" policy tends to slow down the population decline,increase the newly-born population through the short-term compensatory fertility model,and improve the pre-school and compulsory education scale,which is expected to increase by about 8% in 2035,compared with the "universal two-child" policy.From 2021 to 2035,the scale of preschool education tends to decrease,increase,and slowly decrease successively,and the scale of compulsory education tends to remain basically stable and then decrease slowly;from 2021 to 2026,the scale of upper secondary education tends to remain basically stable,and after 2026 it tends to show an inverted U-shaped curve;and higher education enrollment tends to increase annually. The Chinese government should,based on the changes in the scales of education at different levels,optimize the allocation of educational resources and promote the high-quality development of education.

关 键 词：各级教育 教育规模 “三孩”政策 补偿性生育 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学] G521[文化科学—教育学]