理论驱动还是方法驱动?--年龄—时期—世代分析的最新进展  

Theory-Driven or Method-Driven? New Approaches to Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

作　　者：许琪[1] 王金水 吴愈晓[1] Xu Qi;Wang Jinshui;Wu Yuxiao

机构地区：[1]南京大学社会学院

出　　处：《社会学研究》2022年第6期36-58,227,共24页Sociological Studies

摘　　要：年龄—时期—世代模型是研究社会变迁的重要工具,但年龄、时期和世代之间存在完全共线性,使得求解该模型面临严峻的挑战。本文回顾了现有关于该模型的各种求解方法,通过蒙特卡洛模拟研究发现,传统的理论驱动求解方法实施条件过于严格,缺乏现实可操作性;各种方法驱动的求解方法都暗含一些不太合理的参数假定,因此很容易得出误导性结论;以往学者在实践中常常使用的经验法则不可靠。基于对这些方法进行的批判性反思,本文介绍了一种被称作边界分析的新的求解思路,并为这一求解思路提供了新的拓展方向。Age-period-cohort model is an important tool for studying social changes,but the existence of complete covariance among age,period and cohort makes solving the model a serious challenge. This article reviews various existing solution methods for this model through Monte Carlo simulation studies and finds that: the traditional theory-driven solution methods are implemented under too strict conditions and lack practical operability;various method-driven solution methods imply some less reasonable parameter assumptions and thus are prone to misleading conclusions;and the rules of thumb often used by scholars in practice in the past are also unreliable. Based on a critical reflection on these methods,this article introduces a new solution idea for APC analysis called bounding analysis and provides a new direction for its expansion.

关 键 词：年龄—时期—世代分析 理论驱动 方法驱动 边界分析 

分 类 号：C91[经济管理]