基于准自然实验的乡村旅游效应评估  

Evaluation of Rural Tourism Effects Based on Quasi-natural Experiments

作　　者：刘民坤[1,2] 任莉莉 邓小桂[1] 梁连健 LIU Minkun;REN Lili;DENG Xiaogui;LIANG Lianjian(School of Business,GuangxiUniversity,Nanning530004,Guangxi,China;Guangxi Development Strategy Institute,Guangxi University,Nanning 530004,Guangxi,China)

机构地区：[1]广西大学工商管理学院,广西南宁530004 [2]广西大学广西发展战略研究院,广西南宁530004

出　　处：《经济地理》2022年第10期231-239,共9页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71864004);国家自然科学基金面上项目(72272040);广西研究生教育创新计划资助项目(YCBZ2022005);广西高校人文社会科学重点研究基地“广西发展战略研究院”课题(2022GDSIQM14)。

摘　　要：乡村旅游是实现乡村振兴的重要突破口,而现有研究未能有效地消除无关干扰变量的影响,导致学界关于乡村振兴战略旅游效应研究的结果大相径庭。文章运用资本资产框架构建乡村旅游净效应评估理论模型,并在借助准自然实验“时间差异”进行“前后对比”和“有无对比”的基础上,准确地剥离出旅游路径对乡村振兴产生的“净效应”。研究发现:乡村旅游是一条有效的乡村振兴路径,其净效应为3.23%;是否发展旅游乡村之间最大的差距体现在乡村文化保护与传承方面,乡村旅游能够更好地促进乡村文化的复兴与繁荣,但未发展旅游的乡村却在文化保护与传承方面受到重创;乡村旅游发展存在“收入漏损”和“劳动力报酬低廉”等问题。文章提出乡村振兴战略的旅游路径优化策略:突破乡村旅游路径依赖的限制,推动乡村产业兴旺;跳出乡村旅游“收入陷阱”,实现乡村共同富裕;突出乡村旅游资源特色,优化乡村生态宜居空间;打造乡村旅游精品品牌,促进乡村乡风文明建设;保障乡村旅游多元主体参与,形成乡村治理有效格局。Rural tourism is an important breakthrough to realize the rural revitalization.The true impacts of rural tourism are overestimated or underestimated without effectively eliminating the influence of irrelevant interfering variables.By addressing this research gap,this paper takes tourism-developed village and tourism-undeveloped village as the treat group and control group,and introduces a quasi-natural experiment to systematically assess the"net effect"of rural tourism impacts.It is found that rural tourism is an effective rural revitalization path,and its net effect is 3.23%.The biggest gap between tourism-developed village and tourism-undeveloped village is reflected in the protection and inheritance of rural culture.Rural tourism can better promote the revival and prosperity of rural culture,but tourismundeveloped village suffers heavy losses in cultural protection and inheritance.There are some problems in rural tourism development,such as"income leakage"and"low remuneration of labor force".It puts forward the optimization strategy of tourism effect of rural revitalization strategy:breaking through the restriction of rural tourism path dependence and promoting rural industry prosperity,jumping out of the"income trap"of rural tourism and realizing the common prosperity of rural life,highlighting the characteristics of rural tourism resources,optimizing the ecological livable space in the countryside,creating a boutique brand of rural tourism and promoting the construction of rural civilization,guaranteeing the participation of multiple subjects in rural tourism and forming an effective pattern of rural governance.

关 键 词：乡村旅游 旅游路径 双重差分模型 净效应 乡村振兴 利益共享机制 共同富裕 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理]