农业保险能减弱农民的非农就业意愿吗——基于山东省、浙江省、陕西省的调研数据  

Does Agricultural Insurance Weaken Farmers’Non-farm Employment Willingness:Based on Survey Data from Shandong Province,Zhejiang Province,and Shaanxi Province

作　　者：刘素春 赵新宇 田冠超 LIU Suchun;ZHAO Xinyu;TIAN Guanchao

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学保险学院,济南250002

出　　处：《农业技术经济》2022年第11期53-64,共12页Journal of Agrotechnical Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“特色农业全产业链风险监测预警与管控对策研究”(编号:21BJY064)。

摘　　要：为了研究农业保险对非农就业意愿的影响,本文基于期望效用理论,分析农民个体的就业倾向。通过分析山东、陕西、浙江三省的微观数据,利用Order Probit模型和工具变量法,本文实证分析了农业保险减弱农民非农就业意愿的效果并检验了其中介效应。结果表明,购买农业保险可使农民非农就业意愿显著降低,农民在购买农业保险后,其“非常愿意”从事非农工作的程度减弱了5.6%;在农业保险对非农就业意愿影响中,风险承受发挥着一定的中介效应,农业保险通过提高农业风险承受能力减弱农民非农就业的意愿;农业保险对非农就业意愿的影响程度,在不同的农户之间存在差异,对“大中型农户”和粮食作物种植农户的影响程度更大,对“小型农户”和经济作物种植农户影响较小。In order to study the impact of agricultural insurance on non-agricultural employment willingness,this paper analyzes the employment tendency of individual farmers based on the expected utility theory.Using micro data from the three provinces of Shandong,Shaanxi,and Zhejiang from the survey,the Order Probit model and the instrumental variable method,this paper empirically analyzes the effect of agricultural insurance on reducing farmers’non-agricultural employment willingness and tests the mediating effect.The results show that purchasing agricultural insurance can significantly reduce farmers’willingness to engage in non-agricultural employment.After farmers purchased agricultural insurance,their“very willing”degree of non-agricultural work decreased by 5.6%.In the impact of agricultural insurance on non-agricultural employment willingness,risk tolerance plays a certain mediating effect.Agricultural insurance weakens farmers’non-agricultural employment willingness by improving agricultural risk tolerance.The degree of influence of agricultural insurance on non-agricultural employment willingness varies among different farmers.It has a greater impact on“large and medium-sized farmhouseholds”and grain crop farmers,and has a smaller impact on“small farmhouseholds”and cash crop farmers.

关 键 词：农业保险 非农就业 Order Probit模型 中介效应 

分 类 号：F323.6[经济管理—产业经济] F249.27F842.66