1961—2020年伊洛河流域径流变化及归因分析  

Attribution Analysis of Runoff Change in Yiluo River Basin from 1961 to 2020

作　　者：杨旭 申泓彦[3] 王超[1,2] 杜军 邱士可[1] 宋松敏[4] YANG Xu;SHEN Hongyan;WANG Chao;DU Jun;QIU Shike;SONG Songmin(Institute of Geographical Sciences,Henan Academy of Sciences,Zhengzhou 450052,China;Henan Collaborative Innovation Center for Geographic Information Technology of Wisdom Central Plain,Zhengzhou 450052,China;Henan Academy of Sciences,Zhengzhou 450002,China;National Wetland Park Management Office of Luhun Lake,Luoyang 471400,Henan China)

机构地区：[1]河南省科学院地理研究所,郑州450052 [2]智慧中原地理信息技术河南省协同创新中心,郑州450052 [3]河南省科学院,郑州450002 [4]陆浑湖国家湿地公园管理处,河南洛阳471400

出　　处：《河南科学》2022年第11期1786-1793,共8页Henan Science

基　　金：河南省科学院重大科研项目聚焦专项(210101007);河南省科学院基本科研业务费项目(220601003);河南省科学院科技智库研究项目(210701009);中央引导地方科技发展资金项目(211201004);河南省科技攻关项目(212102310024)。

摘　　要：分析伊洛河流域的径流变化特征,量化不同因素对径流变化的影响,对于科学应对该地区及黄河下游的生态保护具有重要意义.采用Budyko假设方法定量计算人为因素和气候因子对伊洛河流域径流变化的贡献率.结果发现:(1)伊洛河流域黑石关水文站的年径流量在1961—2020年间显现为显著减少(P<0.05).(2)1985年是伊洛河流域黑石关水文站1961—2020年径流时间序列数据的突变年份.(3)人为因素、降水量和参考蒸发量对伊洛河流域黑石关水文站径流变化的贡献率分别为55.72%,52.42%和-8.14%.本研究对维持伊洛河及黄河下游生态系统的完整性和可持续发展具有重要的理论参考和现实意义.It is of great significance to scientifically deal with the ecological protection of the region and the lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin by analyzing the runoff variation characteristics and quantifying the impact of different factors on the runoff variation in Yiluo River Basin. The Budyko hypothesis method is adopted to quantitatively calculate the contribution rate of human factors and climate factors to runoff change in the Yiluo River Basin. The results show that:(1)The annual runoff of Heishiguan hydrological station in Yiluo River Basin decreases significantly from1961 to 2020(P<0.05).(2)1985 is the abrupt change year of runoff time series data of Heishiguan hydrological station in Yiluo River Basin from 1961 to 2020.(3) The contribution rates of human factors,precipitation and reference evaporation to the runoff change of Heishiguan hydrological station in Yiluo River Basin are 55.72%,52.42% and-8.14% respectively. This study has important theoretical reference and practical significance for maintaining the integrity and sustainable development of the ecosystem of the Yiluo River and the lower Yellow River.

关 键 词：径流变化 气候因素 人为因素 归因分析 伊洛河流域 

分 类 号：TV121[水利工程—水文学及水资源] TV882.1