顾及混沌特征识别的黄土滑坡变形预测与稳定性评价  

Deformation Prediction and Stability Evaluation of Loess Landslide Considering Chaotic Feature Identification

作　　者：李锐鹏[1] 张宁晓 魏中凯 LI Ruipeng;ZHANG Ningxiao;WEI Zhongkai(The Fourth Geological Exploration Institute of Henan Geology and Mineral Exploration and Development Bureau,Zhengzhou 450000,China)

机构地区：[1]河南省地质矿产勘查开发局第四地质勘查院,郑州450000

出　　处：《河南科学》2022年第11期1802-1810,共9页Henan Science

基　　金：河南省国土资源厅2018年度省财政地质科研项目(豫国土资发[2018]98号-12)。

摘　　要：为准确评价黄土滑坡的稳定性,以张沟滑坡为工程背景,先在现场调查基础上,利用传递系数法计算滑坡目前的稳定性系数,并以其划分滑坡目前的稳定状态;再基于滑坡变形数据,构建了顾及变形数据混沌特征识别的变形预测模型,并利用变形预测结果来判断滑坡稳定性的发展特征.实例分析结果表明:张沟滑坡具有显著变形迹象,现状稳定性相对较差,稳定程度存在一定的局部差异,在不利工况条件下,多处于不稳定状态,失稳风险较大;同时,滑坡后续增加速率相对略大,且无显著收敛趋势,因此,张沟滑坡稳定性将会进一步降低.通过上述研究,为黄土滑坡的稳定性分析提供了一种新思路,可在其基础上进一步拓展类似工程的应用.In order to accurately evaluate the stability of the loess landslide,taking Zhanggou landslide as the engineering background,the current stability coefficient of the landslide is calculated by using the transfer coefficient method on the basis of field investigation,and the current stability state of the landslide is divided according to it.Based on the landslide deformation data,a deformation prediction model considering the chaotic feature recognition of deformation data is constructed,and the development characteristics of landslide stability are judged by the deformation prediction results. The case analysis results show that Zhanggou landslide has obvious signs of deformation,and the current stability is relatively poor. There is a certain local difference in the degree of stability,that is,under adverse working conditions,it is mostly in an unstable state,and the risk of instability is high. At the same time,the subsequent increase rate of the landslide is relatively large,and there is no significant convergence trend. Therefore,the stability of Zhanggou landslide will be further reduced. Through the above research,a new idea is provided for the stability analysis of loess landslide,and the application of similar projects can be further expanded on the basis of it.

关 键 词：黄土滑坡 小波去噪 混沌特征 稳定性评价 变形监测 

分 类 号：P642.2[天文地球—工程地质学]