基于D—S证据理论的大直径变截面钢管混凝土复合桩基础全寿命风险评估  

Full-life Risk Assessment of Steel Pipe Concrete Composite Pile Foundation with Large Diameter and Variable Cross-section Based on D—S Evidence Theory

作　　者：赖德金 李哲[2] 李晓思 赵瑞欣 林立华 冯忠居[2] LAI De-jin;LI Zhe;LI Xiao-si;ZHAO Rui-xin;LIN Li-hua;FENG Zhong-ju(Xiamen Road and Bridge Engineering Investment Development Co.Ltd.,Xiamen 361026,China;School of Highway,Chang'an University,Xi'an 710064,China)

机构地区：[1]厦门路桥工程投资发展有限公司,厦门市361026 [2]长安大学公路学院,西安市710064

出　　处：《公路》2022年第11期59-65,共7页Highway

摘　　要：为评估受多风险因素影响下的跨海桥梁桩基础在全寿命周期内所处的安全状态,以厦门翔安大桥建设项目为依托,提出了多风险因素影响下的大直径变截面钢管混凝土复合桩基础全寿命风险评估方法。以D—S证据理论为理论基础,基于数值模拟结果,综合分析得到各评价指标在辨识框架下的安全指标区间划分,构建了多因素安全评价指标体系。采用COWA算子理论计算风险源的权重和层次分析法计算各评价指标的权重,建立了桩基础安全评价模型,基于此对桩基础所处的安全状态进行了评估。结果表明,该评价模型能较好地应用到桥梁桩基础风险评估中;桩基础处于Ⅰ级预警状态的概率为73%左右,可以认为桩基础处于安全状态。In order to evaluate the safety state of the beam pile foundation of sea crossing bridge under the influence of multiple risk factors in the whole life cycle, based on the construction project of Xiamen Xiang’an Bridge, in this paper the life-cycle risk assessment method of large-diameter variable cross-section concrete-filled steel tubular composite pile foundation under the influence of multiple risk factors is put forward. Based on D-S evidence theory and numerical simulation results, the safety index interval division of each evaluation index under the identification framework is obtained through comprehensive analysis, and a multi-factor safety evaluation index system is constructed. The weight of risk source is calculated by COWA operator theory and the weight of each evaluation index is calculated by AHP. The safety evaluation model of pile foundation is established. Based on this, the safety state of pile foundation is evaluated. The results show that the evaluation model can be well applied to the risk assessment of bridge pile foundation, and the probability that the pile foundation is in the level I early warning state is about 73%, so it can be considered that the pile foundation is in a safe state.

关 键 词：D—S证据理论 桩基础 COWA算子理论 层次分析法 风险评估 

分 类 号：U443.15[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程]