气候变化对荒漠区子午沙鼠(Meriones meridianus)分布格局的影响  

Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution Pattern of Midday Gerbil (Meriones meridianus) in Desert Area

作　　者：王志成 王艳[1] 康宇坤 张彩军 安康 苏军虎[1,2,3] WANG Zhi-cheng;WANG Yan;KANG Yu-kun;ZHANG Cai-jun;AN Kang;SU Jun-hu(College of Grassland Science,Key Laboratory of Grassland Ecosystem(Ministry of Education),Pratacultural Engineering Laboratory of Gansu Province,Sino-U.S.Centers for Grazing land Ecosystem Sustainability,Gansu Agricultural University,Lanzhou,Gansu Province 730070,China;Gansu Agricultural University-Massey University Research Centre for Grassland Biodiversity,Gansu Agricultural University,Lanzhou,Gansu Province 730070,China;Gansu Qilianshan Grassland Ecosystem Observation and Research Station,Tianzhu,Gansu Province 733200,China)

机构地区：[1]甘肃农业大学草业学院/草业生态系统教育部重点实验室/甘肃省草业工程实验室/中美草地畜牧业可持续发展研究中心,甘肃兰州730070 [2]甘肃农业大学-新西兰梅西大学草地生物多样性研究中心,甘肃兰州730070 [3]甘肃省祁连山草原生态系统野外科学观测研究站,甘肃天祝733200

出　　处：《草地学报》2022年第12期3364-3371,共8页Acta Agrestia Sinica

基　　金：甘肃省科技计划项目(20 JR10RA564);甘肃农业大学“伏羲人才”培养计划项目(Gaufx-02 J03)资助。

摘　　要：气候变化是影响物种分布格局的主要因素之一,研究气候变化对物种分布的影响对于生物多样性保护和生态系统管理具有重要意义。本研究以子午沙鼠(Meriones meridianus Pallas,1773)为对象,通过查阅文献报道和数据库资料的方法,确定了子午沙鼠在国内的51个分布记录区域,并从19个生物气候变量中选取8个生物气候变量,通过MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS软件预测其在1970—2000和未来(2050s)温室气体高浓度和低浓度两种排放路径下分布范围变化。结果表明:受试者工作曲线面积(AUC值)均大于0.830,满足模型精度要求;影响子午沙鼠分布的主要生物气候变量为年平均气温和年降水量,其贡献率分别占65.5%和15.0%;与基准气候情景相比,未来气候情景下子午沙鼠的适宜生境范围总体呈现缩减趋势;年平均温度增高、年降水量增多会显著影响子午沙鼠的分布范围。未来很有必要对环境变化后子午沙鼠的防控策略和生态系统管理模式做出相应调整。Climate change is one of the main factors affecting species distribution patterns.Studying the impact of climate change on species distribution is of great significance for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem management.In this study,the midday gerbil(Meriones meridianus Pallas,1773) was selected as the object,and 51 distribution areas of midday gerbil in China were determined by consulting literature reports and database data;meanwhile,we selected 8 bioclimatic variables out from 19 bioclimatic variables and predict changes in the potential distribution range of the midday gerbil under two emission paths of low and high concentration of greenhouse gases from 1970 to 2000 and in the future(2050 s),using the Maximum Entropy(MaxEnt) model and ArcGIS software.The results showed that the value of the area under the curve(AUC value) were all greater than 0.830,which met the model accuracy requirements;the main bioclimatic variables affecting the distribution of the midday gerbil were the annual mean temperature and annual precipitation,and their contribution rates accounted for 65.5% and 15.0%,respectively;compared with the baseline climate scenario,the suitable habitat range of the midday gerbil under the future climate scenario generally showed a decreasing trend.The increase in annual mean temperature and annual precipitation will significantly affect the distribution range of the midday gerbil.In the future,it is necessary to make corresponding adjustments to the prevention and control strategies and ecosystem management models of the midday gerbil after environmental changes.

关 键 词：气候变化 子午沙鼠 分布 MaxEnt模型 

分 类 号：S443.5[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]