中美贸易摩擦与新冠肺炎疫情形成供给冲击压力的宏观闭合检验  

Macro Closures Test of Supply Shock Pressure Formed by the Sino-US Trade Frictions and the COVID-19 Epidemic

作　　者：范金 张晓兰[2] 严斌剑[3] Fan Jin;Zhang Xiaolan;Yan Binjian(College of Economics and Management,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,China;Division of Economic Forecasting,State Information Center of China,Beijing 100045,China;College of Economics and Management,Nanjing Agricultural University,Nanjing 210095,China)

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学经济管理学院,南京210037 [2]国家信息中心经济预测部,北京100045 [3]南京农业大学经济管理学院,南京210095

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2023年第1期149-160,共12页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“‘十四五’时期我国经济有效防范滞胀风险路径研究”(项目编号:21&ZD081)。

摘　　要：利用CGE模型中不同宏观闭合选择的情景分析,本文检验了中美贸易摩擦与新冠肺炎疫情冲击下多种宏观经济理论在中国的适用性问题。主要发现:(1)综合供给学派和现代货币主义学派观点可解释供给冲击压力,中美贸易摩擦、新冠肺炎疫情、偏重投资等形成供给冲击压力诱因;(2)古典学派和新古典学派对中美贸易摩擦与新冠肺炎疫情形成供给冲击压力有着不完全一样的解读,全球化背景下中国企业通过市场机制对冲中美贸易摩擦和新冠肺炎疫情对供给冲击产生的消极影响,而应对新冠肺炎疫情则需要政府作用的适当发挥;(3)中美贸易摩擦与新冠肺炎疫情所造成的产业链断链断供冲击对经济下行压力影响远超中美贸易战的关税壁垒,需要引起足够重视。本文政策启示:(1)逆周期调节与跨周期协同对冲市场预期转弱趋势,沉着应对新冠肺炎疫情冲击和中美贸易摩擦挑战;(2)畅通国内国际经济循环,实现供给与需求在更高水平上的均衡;(3)让金融回归服务实体经济本源,促进金融、科技、产业良性循环。Using scenario analysis of different macro closures choices in the CGE model, this paper examines the applicability of various macroeconomic theories in China under the impact of Sino-US trade frictions and COVID-19.The main findings are as follows: first, the combination of supply-side and monetarist viewpoints can explain the supply-side shock pressure, which is caused by Sino-US trade friction, COVID-19,and the emphasis on investment.Second, neoclassical and new classical school of Sino-US trade friction and the outbreak of the“new champions”form supply shock pressure has not completely the same interpretation of Chinese enterprises through the market mechanism under the background of globalization hedge Sino-US trade friction and the“new champions”with the negative impact on the supply shocks, but the outbreak of the“new champions”requires the appropriate role in the government.Third, trade frictions between China and the US and the disruption of supply chains caused by the COVID-19 pandemic have far more impact on the downward pressure on the economy than tariff barriers in the Sino-US trade war, which needs to be paid close attention to.To this end, we propose the following policy suggestions: first, on macro policies, countercyclical adjustment and cross-cyclical coordination should counter the weakening trend of market expectations and calmly respond to the impact of COVID-19 and the challenges posed by Sino-US trade frictions.Second, in structural policy, we need to unblock domestic and international economic cycles and achieve a balance between supply and demand at a higher level.Third, in terms of financial policies, we will return finance to serving the real economy and promote a virtuous cycle of finance, science and technology and industry.

关 键 词：供给冲击 宏观闭合 中美贸易摩擦 新冠肺炎疫情 市场机制 国内国际双循环 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学] F741