农村金融违约风险影响因素识别及治理路径  

Identification of Influencing Factors of Rural Finance Default Risk and Governance Path

作　　者：陈治国 景辛辛 CHEN Zhi-guo;JING Xin-xin(School of Economics and Management,Xianyang Normal University,Xianyang,China,712000;School of Accounting,Shandong University of Finance and Economics,Jinan,China,250000)

机构地区：[1]咸阳师范学院经济与管理学院,陕西咸阳712000 [2]山东财经大学会计学院,山东济南250000

出　　处：《财经理论研究》2022年第5期30-38,共9页Journal of Finance and Economics Theory

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(20CJY017);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(19YJC790056)

摘　　要：基于农户家庭微观调研数据,本研究运用条件Logit模型对农村金融违约风险的影响因素进行了有效识别,并进行了优势比与边际效应分析,同时采用偏相关系数分析了农村金融违约风险对农户家庭当前正规金融信贷申请可得性的影响。实证研究发现:农村正规金融信贷规模与农村民间金融偿贷情况均在1%显著性水平上对违约风险有明显的加剧效应,农村正规金融抵押担保条件与农户家庭纯收入则分别在5%、10%显著性水平上对违约风险有显著的抑制效应,且正规金融信贷期限、户主年龄、家庭有金融机构职员等因素对违约风险有不显著的加剧效应,家庭总支出、劳动力规模、党员干部家庭等因素对违约风险有不显著的缓解效应;优势比分析表明农户家庭收入水平与抵押担保条件使违约风险的几率比分别下降88.6%、11.2%,而不按期偿还民间信贷与农村金融信贷规模使违约风险的几率比分别上升11.266倍、1.134倍,边际效应分析表明抵押担保条件的风险抑制效果最为明显,不按期偿还民间信贷的风险加剧效应更为显著;偏相关系数分析表明较高的信贷违约风险降低了农户申请正规金融信贷资金的可得性。据此本文提出治理农村金融违约风险的针对性优化路径。Based on the micro-survey data of farmers’ families, this study used conditional Logit model to effectively identify the influencing factors of rural finance default risk, and analyzed the advantage ratio and the marginal effect, as well as the partial correlation coefficient to analyze the impact of rural finance default risk on the availability of rural households’ current formal credit applications. The empirical results show that first of all, the scale of rural formal credit and rural private financial loan repayment have obvious intensifying effects on the default risk at 1% significance level, while the conditions of rural formal financial mortgage guarantee and the net income of rural households have obvious inhibiting effects on the default risk at 5% and 10% significance levels, respectively. Moreover, the formal credit term, the age of the head of a household, the employees of financial institutions and other factors have no obvious intensifying effects on the default risk, and the total household expenditure, the scale of labor force and the party members have insignificant mitigative effects on the default risk. Besides, advantage ratio analysis shows that the probability of farmers’ household income level and mortgage guarantee condition reduces by 88.6% and 11.2% respectively, while that of default risk of failing to repay private lending on schedule and rural financial credit scale increases by 11.266 times and 1.134 times respectively. Marginal effect analysis shows that mortgage guarantee conditions have the most obvious risk inhibiting effect, and the risk intensifying effect of failing to repay private lending on schedule is more obvious. Furthermore, partial correlation coefficient analysis shows that higher credit default risk reduces the availability of formal credit funds for farmers. Based on this, this paper puts forward the targeted measures to improve and control the risk of rural financial default.

关 键 词：农村金融 信贷违约风险 影响因素 条件Logit模型 

分 类 号：F840.6[经济管理—保险]