基于改进TOPSIS-模糊贝叶斯网络的邮轮建造物资物流风险评估  

Logistics risk assessment of building materials for cruise ships based on improved TOPSIS-fuzzy Bayesian network

作　　者：曹洁[1] 王海燕[1] 郑凌垚 CAO Jie;WANG Haiyan;ZHENG Lingyao(School of Transportation and Logistics Engineering,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430063,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学交通与物流工程学院,武汉430063

出　　处：《上海海事大学学报》2022年第4期91-98,104,共9页Journal of Shanghai Maritime University

基　　金：工业和信息化部大型邮轮研发专项项目(MC-202009-Z03)。

摘　　要：为提高邮轮建造物资物流管理水平,提出基于改进逼近理想解排序法(technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution,TOPSIS)与模糊贝叶斯网络的风险评估模型。采用工作分解结构-风险分解结构(work breakdown structure-risk breakdown structure,WBS-RBS)全面识别物流各环节风险因素,引入改进TOPSIS剔除重要度较小的风险因素。根据事故树构建贝叶斯网络,结合梯形模糊数和Buckley法计算贝叶斯网络根节点的概率,利用其正反向推理对风险进行预测、诊断及重要度分析,找出关键风险,提出改进措施。选取国产首艘大型邮轮的暖通空调物资物流进行实证研究发现,该物资配送延迟发生概率较高,通过加强对第三方和供应商的监管和信息交互、提高计划准确性和仓储集配规范性等可快速降低风险。研究表明:该模型能有针对性地找出物流中的薄弱环节,为邮轮建造物资物流风险管理提供借鉴。In order to improve the logistics management level of cruise ship building materials,a risk assessment model based on the improved technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution(TOPSIS)and the fuzzy Bayesian network is proposed.The work breakdown structure-risk breakdown structure(WBS-RBS)is used to comprehensively identify risk factors in all logistics links,and the improved TOPSIS is applied to eliminate risk factors with less importance.Bayesian network is constructed according to the fault tree,and the probability of root nodes of Bayesian network is calculated by the trapezoidal fuzzy number and Buckley method.The forward and reverse reasoning is used to conduct risk prediction,diagnosis and importance analysis,so as to find out key risks and put forward improvement measures.An empirical study on HVAC material logistics of the first large cruise ship in China shows that,the probability of delivery delay is higher,and the risk can be quickly reduced by strengthening the supervision and information exchange for the third party and suppliers,and improving the plan accuracy and the standardization of storage collection and allocation.The results show that the model can find out weak links in logistics,which can provide reference for the logistics risk management of cruise ship building materials.

关 键 词：邮轮 建造物资 物流风险 工作分解结构-风险分解结构(WBS-RBS) 逼近理想解排序法(TOPSIS) 模糊贝叶斯网络 

分 类 号：U667[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程] F252[交通运输工程—船舶与海洋工程] X913.4[经济管理—国民经济]