人工智能技术会促进代际收入流动吗?——基于CFPS数据库的经验证据  

Can Artificial Intelligence Technology Promote Intergenerational Income Mobility?--Empirical Evidence Based on the CFPS Database

作　　者：赵贺 董直庆 钱圆圆 ZHAO He;DONG Zhi-qing;QIAN Yuan-yuan

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学经济与管理学部

出　　处：《产经评论》2022年第5期55-72,共18页Industrial Economic Review

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“人工智能技术应用的职业可替代率、行业智能化程度及就业效应”(项目编号:20BJY019,项目负责人:董直庆)。

摘　　要：前沿文献关注技术进步对劳动收入分配的影响,却普遍忽视人工智能技术对代际层面收入不平等的影响。基于此,利用2010—2016年间中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,构建父辈和子代收入百分位阶层测度代际收入流动性及流动方向,考察人工智能技术对代际收入不平等问题的作用。结果显示:人工智能技术促进代际收入流动性增强,并进一步促进代际收入向上流动,且对家庭教育程度中等、男性和非农户个体,以及市场化水平较高、知识产权保护程度中高、财政教育支出水平中高地区个体的代际收入向上流动具有更显著促进作用。此外,人工智能技术通过促进代际职业向上流动和劳动力迁移的途径作用于代际收入向上流动。因此,应加大对人工智能技术及相关产业发展的支持力度,通过推进市场化改革和教育公平、完善知识产权保护体系、加大财政教育支出水平等,充分释放人工智能技术促进代际收入向上流动的红利。Can artificial intelligence technology,as an indispensable force in the new round of technological revolution and global productivity change,also promote intergenerational income mobility?This paper uses the data of China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)from 2010 to 2016,constructs the income percentile of parents and offspring to measure the mobility and mobile direction of intergenerational income,and examines the role of AI technology on the problem of intergenerational income inequality.This paper finds that the development of AI technology promotes intergenerational income mobility and further promotes intergenerational income upward move,and the upward move of intergenerational income has a more significant promoting effect for individuals with moderate family education,male,and non-rural household registration,as well as the areas with high level of marketization,medium and high level of intellectual property protection,medium and high level of financial education expenditure.In addition,AI technology enables the upward mobility of intergenerational income by promoting the upward mobility of intergenerational occupations and labor migration.

关 键 词：人工智能技术 代际收入流动 收入流动方向 代际收入不平等 

分 类 号：F124.3[经济管理—世界经济]