高水平对外开放对非正规就业影响的实证检验——基于上海自贸区设立的准自然实验  

An Empirical Test of the Impact of High-level Opening to the Outside World on Informal Employment: Quasi Natural Experiment Based on the Establishment of Shanghai Free Trade Zone

作　　者：马国旺[1] 杨洋 MA Guo-wang;YANG Yang(Tianjin University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]天津财经大学经济学院

出　　处：《华中科技大学学报（社会科学版）》2023年第1期128-140,共13页Journal of Huazhong University of Science and Technology(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：天津市哲学社会科学规划年度项目“马克思主义视域下中国抗疫制度优势及国际比较研究”(TJKSQN20-005)。

摘　　要：在国际竞争逐渐增强、就业矛盾不断突出的现实背景下,非正规就业作为一种有别于传统就业的新就业形式受到高水平对外开放的影响。本文基于上海自贸区建立的准自然实验,利用我国2005—2018年省际面板数据,运用合成控制法从宏观地区层面探究高水平对外开放与非正规就业之间的动态关系。研究结果显示,在控制其他变量不变的条件下,上海自贸区的设立使得上海非正规就业人数逐年增加。这表明上海自贸区的设立对上海市非正规就业规模具有显著的促进作用,高水平对外开放扩大了地区非正规就业规模。进一步的中介效应检验表明,高水平对外开放通过进口竞争效应和出口扩大效应带来非正规就业扩张的路径显著存在。Under the realistic background of increasing international competition and increasingly prominent employment contradiction, as a new form of employment different from traditional employment, informal employment is affected by the high level of opening to the outside world. Based on the quasi natural experiment established by Shanghai Free Trade Zone, using China’s inter provincial panel data from 2005 to 2018 and using the synthetic control method, this paper explores the dynamic relationship between high-level opening to the outside world and informal employment from the macro regional level. The research results show that under the condition of controlling other variables unchanged, the establishment of Shanghai Free Trade Zone makes the number of informal employment in Shanghai increase year by year. This shows that the establishment of Shanghai Free Trade Zone has a significant role in promoting the scale of informal employment in Shanghai, high-level opening to the outside world has expanded the scale of regional informal employment. Further test of the mediating effect shows that there is a significant path of high-level opening to the outside world leading to informal employment expansion through import competition effect and export expansion effect.

关 键 词：高水平对外开放 非正规就业 自贸区 合成控制法 

分 类 号：F125[经济管理—世界经济] F249.2