我国家禽产业生产布局变迁及影响因素研究——基于空间计量经济学的实证分析  

A study on the changes of the production layout of poultry industry in China and its influencing factors——An empirical analysis based on spatial econometrics

作　　者：于卓 刘增金[2] YU Zhuo;LIU Zengjin(Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China;Shanghai Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Shanghai 201403,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学,青岛266100 [2]上海市农业科学院,上海201403

出　　处：《上海农业学报》2022年第6期124-133,共10页Acta Agriculturae Shanghai

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(71603169);上海市哲社办课题(2019EG1004)。

摘　　要：基于2008—2018年省域面板数据,使用描述性统计与区域重心法分析了我国家禽产业生产布局的变迁趋向与程度。基于空间计量经济学,使用莫兰指数度量家禽产业生产布局是否存在空间相关性,构建模型分析家禽产业生产布局的影响因素及作用机理。结果表明:目前我国家禽产业呈现出“东强西弱,南北相对均衡”的生产格局,以及“北降南增西进东升”的变迁态势。邻近地区的禽类生产布局对本地区家禽生产布局具有抑制作用,表明我国家禽产业存在区域集聚现象,但区域间竞争关系明显,呈现出极化发展的态势。本地区的生产要素投入值、交通运输密度、规模化养殖户(场)数、二三产业产值、畜牧兽医站对家禽产业生产布局具有正向影响,环境规制、玉米产量有负向影响。Based on the provincial panel data from 2008 to 2018,descriptive statistics and regional barycenter method were used to analyze the change trend and degree of China’s poultry industry production layout.Based on spatial econometrics,Moran index was used to measure whether there was spatial correlation in the production layout of poultry industry,and a model was built to analyze the influencing factors and mechanism of the production layout of poultry industry.The results showed that the poultry industry in China had a production pattern of “strong in the east and weak in the west,relatively balanced in the north and south”,and a change trend of “descending in the north,increasing in the south,advancing in the west and rising in the east”.The distribution of poultry production in the adjacent areas had a restraining effect on the distribution of poultry production in local region,indicating that there was a regional agglomeration phenomenon in China’s poultry industry,but the competition between regions was obvious,showing a trend of polarized development.The input value of production factors,transportation density,the number of large-scale farmers(farms),the output value of secondary and tertiary industries and animal husbandry and veterinary stations had a positive impact on the production layout of poultry industry,while environmental regulation and corn production had a negative impact.

关 键 词：家禽产业 生产布局 区域产业规划 区域重心法 空间滞后模型 

分 类 号：S858.3[农业科学—临床兽医学] F326.3[农业科学—兽医学]