长江上游流域地表干燥度指数的变化及相关性分析  

Changes and Correlation Analysis of Surface Aridity Index in the Upper Yangtze River Basin

作　　者：刘冀[1,2,3] 杨少康 常文娟 陈亮[4] 左雪飞[5] LIU Ji;YANG Shaokang;CHANG Wenjuan;CHEN Liang;ZUO Xuefei(College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China;Engineering Research Center of Eco-environment in Three Gorges Reservoir Region,Ministry of Education,Yichang 443002,China;Hubei Collaborative Innovation Center for Water Resources Security,Wuhan 430072,China;Shanghai Investigation,Design&Research Institute Co.,Ltd,Shanghai 200335,China;Xiaogan Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Bureau of Hubei Province,Xiaogan 432000,China)

机构地区：[1]三峡大学水利与环境学院,湖北宜昌443002 [2]三峡库区生态环境教育部工程研究中心,湖北宜昌443002 [3]水资源安全保障湖北省协同创新中心,湖北武汉430072 [4]上海勘测设计研究院有限公司,上海200335 [5]湖北省孝感市水文水资源勘测局,湖北孝感432000

出　　处：《水文》2022年第6期41-46,共6页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51709151)。

摘　　要：长江上游流域作为我国重要的水资源区,揭示其地表干燥度演变规律,对于流域抗旱减灾,水资源合理利用具有重要意义。以长江上游流域为研究区,基于67个气象站1961—2019年逐月气象数据,利用Penman-Monteith模型计算潜在蒸散量(ET_(0)),进而计算地表干燥度指数(AI),采用累积距平法、滑动t检验、Mann-Kendall检验法、集合经验模态分解(EEMD)分析AI时空变化特征,再利用Spearman秩相关法及偏相关分析评估AI与主要气象因子的相关性。结果表明:长江上游流域年平均降水量以-0.809 mm/10a的速率显著下降(P<0.05),ET_(0)以0.946 mm/10a的速率显著上升(P<0.05)。AI整体以-0.014/10a的速率减小,主周期为准3年,1998年发生突变,突变前呈干旱态势,突变后呈湿润态势。AI年代际变化与多年平均均表现为大致自东南向西北增加的趋势;AI与降水量及气温均呈现显著相关,受降水及气温的综合影响。The upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin is an important water resource area in China.It is of great significance to reveal the evolution law of surface aridity for drought relief and rational utilization of water resources.Based on the monthly meteorological data of 67 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2019,the potential evapotranspiration was calculated by penman Monteith model,then the surface aridity index(AI)was calculated.The temporal and spatial variation characteristics of AI were analyzed by cumulative anomaly method,sliding t test,Mann Kendall mutation test and ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD),Spearman rank correlation method and partial correlation analysis were used to evaluate the correlation between AI and main meteorological factors.The results showed that,(1)the average AI of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River decreased at a rate of-0.014/10 a,showing a trend of drought first and then humid,and there was a main cycle of about 3 years,and the mutation occurred in 1998;(2)The annual average precipitation decreased significantly at the rate of-0.809 mm/10a(P<0.05),while the potential evapotranspiration increased significantly at the rate of 0.946 mm/10 a(P<0.05);(3)Both the interdecadal variation of AI and the average annual AI in the study area showed an increasing trend from southeast to northwest;(4)AI was significantly correlated with precipitation and temperature in the study area,and AI was mainly affected by precipitation and temperature.

关 键 词：地表干燥度 时空演变 相关性 长江上游 

分 类 号：P339[天文地球—水文科学]