多模式预报系统对东亚冬季风预测性能的评估  

Prediction Performance Assessment of Multiple Model Forecast Systems for East Asian Winter Monsoon

作　　者：吴昱树 王林[3] 陈权亮[1] WU Yushu;WANG Lin;CHEN Quanliang(School of Atmospheric Sciences,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225,China;Ulanqab Meteorological Bsureau,Ulanqab 012000,China;Center for Monsoon System Research,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China)

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程大学大气科学学院,成都610225 [2]内蒙古自治区乌兰察布市气象局,乌兰察布012000 [3]中国科学院大气物理研究所季风系统研究中心,北京100190

出　　处：《高原山地气象研究》2022年第4期88-95,共8页Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1507103);国家自然科学基金项目(42005057)。

摘　　要：基于哥白尼气候变化服务中心(C3S)提供的五个最先进的季节预报系统输出的1993~2016年回报数据,结合ERA5再分析资料和GPCP降水资料,对其预测东亚冬季风的性能进行评估。结果表明:C3S多模式预报系统能很好地预测东亚冬季风气候态的主要特征,包括西伯利亚高压、阿留申低压、东亚大槽、东亚高空急流及东亚地表气温和降水;SEAS5、GloSea5、MF-Sys7、GCFS2等多个模式均对东亚冬季风指数显示出了预测技巧,同时可以很好地预测与东亚冬季风相关的区域大气环流、地表气温及降水异常;SPSv3模式表现出与观测相反且位置偏西的大气环流、地表气温及降水异常,使得该模式对东亚冬季风指数表现出负技巧。Based on the return data of five state-of-the-art seasonal prediction systems provided by Copernicus Climate Change Service(C3S) from 1993 to 2016,combined with ERA5 reanalysis data and GPCP precipitation data,the prediction performances for East Asian Winter Monsoon(EAWM) are assessed.The results show the main features of EAWM climate state are well predicted by the C3S multi-system,which includes the Siberian High,Aleutian Low,the East Asian trough,the East Asian upper jet stream and East Asian surface temperature and precipitation.SEAS5,GloSea5,MF-Sys7,GCFS2 and other models have shown prediction skills for EAWM index(EAWMI),while the regional atmospheric circulation,surface temperature and precipitation anomalies related to EAWM are also well predicated.Atmospheric circulation,surface temperature and precipitation anomalies that SPSv3 shows are opposite to the observation and westward,which makes the model show a negative effect on EAWM.

关 键 词：东亚冬季风 季节预测 C3S多模式预报系统 预测技巧 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]