内循环视域下老龄化对居民消费的动态影响研究  

The Dynamic Impact Study of Aging on Household Consumption Based on the Inner Circulation

作　　者：王树 张峻康 苏杰 WANG Shu;ZHANG Jun-kang;SU Jie(School of Economics,Guizhou University of Finance and Economics,Guiyang 550025,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州财经大学经济学院,贵州贵阳550025

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2023年第1期105-115,共11页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：贵州省哲学社会科学规划青年课题“数字包容视域下老年人融入数字社会的困境及化解路径研究”(22GZQN08)。

摘　　要：经济内循环是指国内生产、分配、交换和消费等社会生产过程,其中消费环节则是经济内循环的战略基点,而中国的老龄化程度正在不断加深,老年人口数量的持续增加将会对居民消费产生重要影响,因此,研究内循环视域下老龄化对居民消费的动态影响,运用动态优化模型进行数理分析,发现老龄化对居民消费的影响随收入提升呈现倒U型动态变化;运用2010—2018年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)面板数据进行计量分析,首先,分别采用面板模型和Heckman两步法进行初步计量回归,发现老龄化总体上抑制了居民消费,对消费率进行分解后发现,老龄化可以推动居民的消费结构升级,具体来看主要是通过促进医疗保健费用,抑制文教娱乐和交通通讯费用来实现的,因此,老龄化促进消费结构升级的效果是“浅层次”的;其次,通过面板门槛模型并采用不同的老龄化标准进行设定,以及根据不同的收入类型和收入区间进行门槛回归,分别设定控制时间和不控制时间效应,发现老龄化随着收入变化对消费的影响呈现倒U型,由此验证了本文动态优化模型推导的结论;最后,通过稳健性检验发现计量结果十分稳健。“Internal circulation dominated and the international and domestic cycles promote each other”is the prospective strategic choice to the pattern of economic development which made by China,based on the new stage,new situation and new background.The implement of the strategy has close connection with the demographic transition of China.After the reform and opening up,China gains the first demographic dividend through the quantity advantage in labor force to realize the high-speed development of economy by the dominating of the labor concentrated industry.With the declining of the first demographic dividend,the traditional development patterns of the export-led economy hard to sustain.China needs to realize the high-quality economic development by second demographic dividend,based on the deepening of human capital and physical capital.The focus of the economic development changes.The economic internal circulation is the social production process of the production,distribution,exchanging,consumption and so on.The consumptive step is the important strategic basis point of the economic internal circulation.With the increasing of the average life expectancy and the declining of the fertility level,the aging degree becomes more and more deep.The increasing amount of the aged will have an important effect on the household consumption.The life cycle theory shows the saving and consumption behaviors base on the long income level.The consumers can distribute the resources on the different phases of the all life.Almost all of the empirical studies about the relationships of the aged,saving and consumption root in the life cycle theory,nonetheless,the results are different.The debates are derived from the expected effect.The increasing amount of the old will promote the household consumption,because the old are the negative savers who will bring the burden effect to the household saving which promote the consumption.Many scholars proved this point of view.Some academics find that the life cycle theory should introduce the

关 键 词：人口老龄化 老年人 内循环 动态优化模型 CFPS 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学]