虚拟货币币值波动对美元汇率的影响效应研究  

Research on the Effect of Cryptocurrency Fluctuation on Foreign Currency Exchange Rate

作　　者：周陈曦[1] ZHOU Chen-xi(People′s Bank of China Nanchang Central Sub-Branch,Nanchang,Jiangxi,338000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行南昌中心支行,江西南昌338000

出　　处：《凯里学院学报》2022年第6期58-65,共8页Journal of Kaili University

摘　　要：一段时期以来,某些以“虚拟货币投资”为幌子的网络集团凭借互联网平台宣传所谓“低投入、高收益”投资项目,实则“以炒币之名行非法诈骗之实”,由此引发的经济风险和法律风险值得高度关注.为了揭穿上述骗局,深入探究虚拟货币对实体货币币值的影响效应,本研究分析了比特币(BTC/btc)、莱特币(LTC/ltc)、以太币(ETH/eth)等虚拟货币在币值、收盘价格、日成交量和涨跌幅度等方面的特点.然后,运用TVP-VAR模型,模拟了2017年8月以来,上述三种虚拟货币与美元汇率之间的动态关系.研究结果得出,虚拟货币价格与实体货币币值并无相关性,现阶段虚拟货币与交易行为、投资者预期和避险动机等因素相关,并提出了相关政策建议.Cryptocurrency has the trend of networking and crossing borders,and has the characteristics of deception,temptation,and concealment.We analyzed the characteristics of cryptocurrencies such as BTC/BTC,LTC/LTC and Eth/Eth in terms of currency value,closing price,daily trading volume and fluctuation range,simulated the dynamic relationship between the above three cryptocurrencies and dollar/dollar since August 2017 by using the tvp-var model.According to the research,there is no correlation between the price of virtual currency and the value of real currency.At present,virtual currency is related to transaction behavior,expectatcon of investors,and risk aversion motivation.Then,put forward relevant policy suggestions.

关 键 词：虚拟货币 汇率 影响效应 

分 类 号：F821[经济管理—财政学]