川渝地区儿童非正常迁移的时空分异特征与影响因素分析  

Spatio-temporal Differentiation and Influencing Factors of Irregular Migration of Children in Sichuan-Chongqing Region

作　　者：刘玲 李钢[1,2] 王皎贝 周俊俊 薛淑艳 LIU Ling;LI Gang;WANG Jiao-bei;ZHOU Jun-jun;XUE Shu-yan(College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Northwest University,Xi'an 710127,China;Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity,Northwest University,Xi'an 710127,China)

机构地区：[1]西北大学城市与环境学院,陕西西安710127 [2]陕西省地表系统与环境承载力重点实验室,陕西西安710127

出　　处：《人口与发展》2022年第6期82-97,共16页Population and Development

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“中国典型拐出源地拐卖儿童犯罪时空演化机制与防控对策”(41871144);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“我国拐卖儿童犯罪的时空规律、发生机制与防控对策”(16YJZH028)。

摘　　要：儿童非正常迁移的现象在中国社会存在已久,其中以拐卖犯罪与民间抱养为主,对涉及其中的儿童和家庭都产生了不可估量的影响,逐渐成为社会和学界关注的焦点。基于对网络平台寻亲资料的挖掘和整合,综合运用文本分析、数理统计与空间分析等方法,将拐卖与抱养进行对比分析以探究川渝地区儿童非正常迁移的时空分异特征与影响因素。研究发现:(1)时间上,拐卖犯罪和民间抱养的年际变化分别呈倒“V”型和“M”型波动变化态势,月份变化较小,且周六、周日拐卖与抱养高发。(2)川渝地区儿童非正常迁移的空间分布差异显著,主要集中于川渝中东部地区;流出川渝的路径较为分散,主要呈现“两源两汇”的格局,具有“路径依赖”特征;流入川渝的路径总体呈现“邻近流入”特征。(3)运用地理探测器探索其影响因素,发现人口性别比、城乡收入差距、乡村从业率与城镇登记失业率、客运量、受教育水平是儿童非正常迁移的主要影响因子。The phenomenon of children’s irregular migration has existed for a long time in China,among which the child trafficking crime and informal adoption are the main ones.It has had immeasurable impacts on the involved children and families.Therefore,it has gradually become the focus of attention of society and academic community.Based on the mining and integration of the information on seeking relatives on the network platform,this article comprehensively usestext analysis,mathematical statistical analysis,and spatial analysis to compare child traffickingand informal adoption to explore the spatio-temporal differentiation and influencing factors ofchildren’s irregular migration in Sichuan-Chongqing Region.The results show:(1)Temporal-ly,the inter-annual distribution of child trafficking and informal adoption showed inverted“V”and“M”shaped patterns respectively,and the monthly difference was not significant.OnSaturday and Sunday,child trafficking and informal adoption were high.(2)Spatially,the spa-tial distribution of irregular migration is significantly different and it is mainly distributed in thecentral and eastern regions in Sichuan-Chongqing Region.The outflow paths are relatively dis-persed and mainly presents the pattern of“two sources and two sinks”,with the feature of“pathdependence”.And the inflow path generally shows the“neighboring inflow”trend.(3)Using ge-ographic detectors to explore its influencing factors,it is found that the gender ratio of the popu-lation,urban-rural income gap,rural employment rate and urban registered unemploymentrate,passenger traffic,and education level are the main influencing factors affecting children’sirregular migration.

关 键 词：非正常迁移 拐卖儿童犯罪 民间抱养 时空格局 川渝地区 

分 类 号：C913.5[经济管理]