基于时空信息的重点活动时密集人群多方向疏散需求预测方法  

Prediction method of multi-directional evacuation demand of dense crowd during key activities based on Spatio-temporal information

作　　者：张韬 曹晟 ZHANG Tao;CAO Sheng(China Mobile Group Hubei Co.,Ltd,Wuhan 430023,China)

机构地区：[1]中国移动通信集团湖北有限公司,湖北武汉430023

出　　处：《长江信息通信》2022年第11期90-92,共3页Changjiang Information & Communications

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(No.41231171)资助;湖北省第一届青年英才基金资助。

摘　　要：为了实现对重点活动发生时密集人群的监控和高效疏散管理,文章提出一种重点活动密集人群多方向疏散需求预测方法,旨在为活动应急管理提供决策基础。本方法利用手机信令数据挖掘用户重点活动密集人群的移动规律,确定各方向上的新增用户流量和交通需求量,对活动区域常驻手机用户进行下一时段的移动方向预测,确定各方向的日常交通需求量,进而可以预测重点活动密集人群多方向疏散需求。In order to realize the monitoring and efficient evacuation management of the dense crowd when the key activities occur,this paper proposes a multi-directional evacuation demand prediction method for the dense crowd in the key activities,which aims to provide a decision-making basis for the emergency management of activities.This method uses mobile phone signaling data to mine the movement law of the user’s key activity-intensive crowd,determine the new user flow and traffic demand in each direction,predict the movement direction of the mobile phone users resident in the activity area in the next period,determine the daily traffic demand in each direction,and then predict the multi-directional evacuation demand of the key activity intensive crowd.

关 键 词：密集人群 时空信息 预测 

分 类 号：TP393[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]