基于ABC-Logistic模型的城市绿色生态空间动态变化模拟研究——以福州市为例  

Simulation on Dynamic Change of Urban Green Ecological Space Based on ABC-Logistic Composite Model: A Case Study of Fuzhou

作　　者：黄秋 张其春 黄勇 HUANG Qiu;ZHANG Qichun;HUANG Yong

机构地区：[1]湘潭理工学院商学院 [2]阳光学院现代管理学院 [3]福建工程学院交通运输学院 [4]长沙矿冶研究院

出　　处：《现代城市研究》2022年第10期95-100,共6页Modern Urban Research

基　　金：福建省自然科学基金面上项目(2019J01789);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(19YJC790001)。

摘　　要：城市绿色生态空间具有重要的生态功能,对城市绿色生态空间进行科学模拟及预测可为保护国土生态空间安全提供支持。研究结合人工蜂群优化算法(artificial bee colony algorithm, ABC)和Logistic回归分析构建城市绿色生态空间动态变化模型,模拟和预测2010—2025年福州城市绿色生态空间的演变,以探索福州城市绿色生态空间的时空变化规律及形成机理。结果表明:基于ABC-Logistic模型具有较好的模拟效果及可信性,能够动态展现福州城市发展变化;2010—2017年福州城市绿色生态空间变化明显,生态用地总体数量减少较为严峻,特别是农田、林地和水体等地类,空间变化主要分布在城市东南区域,同时也说明福州城市建设用地扩张在一定程度上占用绿色生态空间,因此如何协调城市发展与绿色生态空间的关系值得探讨。Urban green ecological space has important ecological functions. Scientific simulation and prediction of urban green ecological space can provide support for the protection of national ecological space security. In this study, artificial bee colony algorithm(ABC) and Logistic regression analysis were combined to construct the dynamic change model of urban green ecological space, simulate and predict the evolution of Fuzhou urban green ecological space from 2010 to 2025, so as to explore the spatial-temporal change rule and formation mechanism of Fuzhou urban green ecological space. The results show that composite model has good simulation ef fect and credibility, and can dynamically present the development and change of Fuzhou city. Secondly, the overall number of urban green ecological spaces has decreased from 2010 to 2017, with the most obvious changes in farmland, forest land and water area. Spatial changes are mainly concentrated in the southeast area of Fuzhou city, which also shows that the expansion of urban construction land in Fuzhou city takes up a certain degree of urban green ecological space. Therefore, it is worth exploring how to coordinate the relationship between urban development and green ecological space.

关 键 词：城市绿色生态空间 生态用地 动态模拟 人工蜂群算法 ABC-Logistic回归模型 

分 类 号：TU985[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]