黑色金属矿产在战略性新兴产业的作用及消费需求分析  

Research on the Role,Consumption and Demand of Ferrous Metal Minerals in Strategic Emerging Industries

作　　者：潘昭帅 张照志[1] 车东 PAN Zhaoshuai;ZHANG Zhaozhi;CHE Dong(Laboratory of Metallogeny and Mineral Assessment,Institute of Mineral Resources,Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences,Beijing 100037,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质科学院矿产资源研究所,自然资源部成矿作用与资源评价重点实验室,北京100037

出　　处：《矿业研究与开发》2022年第11期215-222,共8页Mining Research and Development

基　　金：中国地质调查局地质调查项目(DD20190606).

摘　　要：战略性新兴产业是对经济社会全局和长远发展具有重大引领带动作用、成长潜力巨大的产业,而黑色金属矿产则是支撑战略性新兴产业发展的一类关键矿产。因此,厘清黑色金属矿产在战略性新兴产业中的作用及消费需求至关重要。基于产业发展和矿产资源国情,首先运用“顺产业链”和“逆产业链”相结合的方法分析了各类黑色金属矿产在战略性新兴产业的作用和消费现状,其次运用ARIMA模型对“十四五”期间,黑色金属矿产在战略性新兴产业的需求量进行预测。结果表明:2020年,黑色金属矿产在战略性新兴产业中主要应用于新一代信息技术产业、高端装备制造产业、新材料产业和新能源4个一级产业;2020年,黑色金属矿产在战略性新兴产业中的消费总量为1775万t(金属量),占当年总消费量的1.7%;“十四五”期间,黑色金属在战略性新兴产业的需求量将保持增长,2025年的需求总量将达到2104.6万t,占当年总消费量的2%。Strategic emerging industries play critical leading role and have growth potential for the long-term development of economy and society,and ferrous metal minerals are a kind of key raw materials to support the development of strategic emerging industries.Therefore,it is very significant to clarify the role,consumption and demand of ferrous metal minerals in strategic emerging industries.Based on industrial development and current situation of mineral resources,the role and consumption status of ferrous metal minerals in strategic emerging industries were analyzed by using the combination of industrial chain and reverse the industrial chain,and then the demand of ferrous metal minerals in strategic emerging industries during the 14th Five-Year Plan period was predicted by using ARIMA model.The results are concluded as follows.Firstly,in 2020,ferrous metal minerals was mainly applied in four primary industries,including new generation information technology industry,high-end equipment manufacturing industry,new material industry and new energy new materials.Secondly,in 2020,the consumption of ferrous metal minerals in strategic emerging industries was 17.75million tons(metal),accounting for 1.7%of the total consumption.Thirdly,during the 14th Five-Year Plan period,the demand for ferrous metals in strategic emerging industries will keep growth.In 2025,the total demand will reach 21.046million tons,accounting for 2%of the total consumption.

关 键 词：黑色金属 战略性新兴产业 消费现状 需求预测 ARIMA 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济] F416.1