贸易摩擦感知与企业海外直接投资行为  

Micro-Perception of Trade Friction and Outward Direct Investment

作　　者：杨荣静 卢进勇[1] YANG Rongjing;LU Jinyong

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2022年第11期106-118,134,M0004,共15页World Economy Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国国际投资史研究”(19ZDA059)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：文章采取机器学习技巧同时量化了2008~2018年企业(微观)层级和媒体(宏观)层级的贸易摩擦信息感知,并从异质性角度研究了贸易摩擦感知对企业海外投资决策的影响及微观机制。文章发现:(1)企业对贸易摩擦信息的感知正向刺激了企业做出向海外直接投资的决策;(2)贸易摩擦的影响存在动态效应,贸易摩擦滞后1~2期仍对企业海外投资决策存在显著影响;(3)贸易摩擦的信息持续度影响了企业的海外投资决策;(4)企业对贸易摩擦感知越强烈,行业内海外投资的企业数量与出口商数量比值会变大,即企业海外直接投资企业数量增加的同时选择出口的企业数量会减少;(5)中间品进口受阻是贸易摩擦激励企业选择海外直接投资的另一渠道。This paper uses machine learning techniques to quantify trade friction information perception at both enterprise level( micro)and media level( macro) from 2008 to 2018. From the perspective of heterogeneity,this paper studies the impact of trade friction perception on overseas investment decision-making and micro-mechanism. This paper finds that,firstly,the impact of trade friction does positively stimulate the decision-making of enterprises to invest overseas. Secondly,the impact of trade friction variables on the decision-making of enterprises to invest overseas is the strongest. Thirdly,if the perception of trade friction is weakened year by year,the probability of enterprises making the decision of overseas direct investment will decrease. Fourthly,in the part of mechanism discussion,it finds that as the marginal cost of export increases,the ratio between the number of enterprises making overseas direct investment and the number of enterprises choosing export will become larger. That means there are some shifts from exports to overseas investment of enterprises in its industry. Fifthly,the import obstruction of intermediate goods is another channel which affects the overseas direct investment of enterprises due to trade friction. Under the background of trade friction,the government should consider the capital going out rationally,make rational use of policy space,and make correct guidance of capital going out.

关 键 词：贸易摩擦感知 企业海外直接投资 出口替代 中间品进口依赖 

分 类 号：F125[经济管理—世界经济] F752