流感疫情早期预警模型的研究进展  

Research progress on early warning model of influenza

作　　者：张惺惺 冯录召 赖圣杰 马礼兵 张婷[1] 杨津[1] 王晴 杨维中[1] Zhang Xingxing;Feng Luzhao;Lai Shengjie;Ma Libing;Zhang Ting;Yang Jin;Wang Qing;Yang Weizhong(School of Population Medicine and Public Health,Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences&Peking Union Medical College,Beijing 100730,China;WorldPop,School of Geography and Environmental Science,University of Southampton,Southampton SO171BJ,UK;Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine,Affiliated Hospital of Guilin Medical University,Guilin 541001,China)

机构地区：[1]中国医学科学院北京协和医学院群医学及公共卫生学院,北京100730 [2]英国南安普顿大学地理与环境科学学院,南安普顿SO171BJ [3]桂林医学院附属医院呼吸与危重症医学科,桂林541001

出　　处：《中华预防医学杂志》2022年第11期1576-1583,共8页Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine

基　　金：中国医学科学院医学与健康科技创新工程(2021-I2M-1-044)。

摘　　要：流感是一种由流感病毒引起的急性呼吸道传染病,通常呈季节性流行。新型流感病毒可能导致大流行,一旦发生将对人群健康、社会经济造成严重影响。实现暴发疫情的早期预警是流感防控的重要策略和手段。本文在回顾国内外主要流感监测预警系统的基础上,总结常见的流感早期预警模型的原理、应用、优缺点和发展前景等,以期为流感以及其他急性呼吸道传染病疫情的预警技术研究与应用提供参考。Influenza is an acute respiratory infectious disease caused by influenza virus.It usually exhibits seasonal transmission,but the novel influenza strain can lead to a pandemic with severe human health and socioeconomic consequences.Early warning of influenza epidemic is an important strategy and means for influenza prevention and control.On the basis of reviewing the main influenza surveillance and early warning systems,this study summarizes the principles,applications,advantages and disadvantages,and development prospects of common influenza early warning models,in order to provide reference for research and application of early warning technology for influenza and other acute respiratory infectious diseases.

关 键 词：流感 监测预警系统 早期预警模型 大数据 

分 类 号：R511.7[医药卫生—内科学] R181.8[医药卫生—临床医学]