基于AA-SVRPF的配电网负荷供应能力不确定性评估  

Uncertainty Evaluation of Load Supply Capability for Distribution Network Based on AA-SVRPF

作　　者：吴红斌[1] 王旻洋 丁明[1] 孙鸣 毕锐[1] 徐斌 WU Hongbin;WANG Minyang;DING Ming;SUN Ming;BI Rui;XU Bin(Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Renewable Energy Utilization and Energy Saving(Hefei University of Technology),Hefei 230009,Anhui Province,China;Institute of Energy,Hefei Comprehensive National Science Center,Hefei 230031,Anhui Province,China;State Grid Anhui Electric Power Research Institute,Hefei 230601,Anhui Province,China)

机构地区：[1]新能源利用与节能安徽省重点实验室(合肥工业大学),安徽省合肥市230009 [2]合肥综合性国家科学中心能源研究院,安徽省合肥市230031 [3]国网安徽省电力有限公司电力科学研究院,安徽省合肥市230601

出　　处：《中国电机工程学报》2022年第22期8153-8163,共11页Proceedings of the CSEE

基　　金：国家自然科学基金区域创新发展联合基金资助(U19A20106);合肥综合性国家科学中心能源研究院资助(21KZS211)。

摘　　要：分布式电源(distributed generation,DG)出力的间歇性、随机性和波动性,增加了配电网负荷供应能力(loadsupply capacity,LSC)评估的复杂性。针对传统不确定性方法难以全面地体现LSC的客观不确定性和认知不确定性,提出一种基于仿射数学的变步长重复潮流法(theaffinealgorithm based step-varied repeated power flow method,AA-SVRPF)。利用概率函数的分布参数区间建立风速和光照强度的参数化P-box模型。通过AA直接求得LSC的焦元,结合证据理论生成负荷增长百分比的证据结构体形式。针对计算过程中存在多层循环嵌套、计算效率低的问题,提出基于矩阵运算的快速求解策略,提高了AA-SVRPF的计算效率。为体现不同供电水平时的LSC的不确定性,采用静态负荷供应风险概率作为LSC的度量指标。通过算例的对比分析,结果验证了该方法的可行性和有效性。Distributed generation(DG) output is intermittent, random, and volatile. Consequently, evaluation of the load supply capacity(LSC) of the distribution network becomes more complicated. Owing to the fact that traditional uncertainty methods can not fully reflect the aleatory uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty of LSC, the affine algorithm based step-varied repeated power flow method(AA-SVRPF) was proposed. The parameterized probability box models of wind speed and light intensity were established by using the distribution parameter interval of probability function. The affine algorithm was used to directly obtain the focal elements of LSC, and the Dempster-Shafer structure of maximum load growing percentage was generated based on the evidence theory. Due to multi-layered cycle nesting and the low efficiency, a fast solution strategy based on matrix operation was proposed to improve the calculation efficiency of AA-SVRPF. In order to reflect the uncertainty of LSC under different load levels, the static load supply risk probability was used as the measurement index of LSC. Comparative analysis of the calculation examples indicates that the proposed method is feasible and effective.

关 键 词：负荷供应能力 仿射算法 参数化P-box 证据理论 关联矩阵 静态负荷供应风险 

分 类 号：TM72[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]