从金油铜比价看经济周期  

Reviewing the Economic Cycle from the Comparative Prices of Gold, Oil and Copper

作　　者：温彬[1] 李鑫[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国民生银行 [2]中国民生银行研究院

出　　处：《金融市场研究》2022年第11期95-104,共10页Financial Market Research

摘　　要：黄金、原油、铜之间的价格比例关系通常被市场视为可预判经济走势的信号。将几个指标综合考虑,一定程度上可对美、欧等经济体经济周期阶断形成综合研判。本文分析金油铜比价与经济周期的关系,并基于此研判经济走势。The comparative prices of gold, oil and copper can be useful in predicting economic trends. By considering these several indicators together, to a certain extent, we can form a comprehensive assessment of the economic cycle. In this paper, we analyze the relationship between the gold-oil-copper comparative ratio and the economic cycle, and use this as the basis for making judgements on the economy.

关 键 词：金油铜比价 经济周期 相关性 

分 类 号：F113.7[经济管理—国际贸易] F416[经济管理—世界经济] F764