家庭人口结构、土地流转与粮食产出——基于CHFS数据的实证分析  

Household Population Structure,Land Circulation and Grain Production in China:Empirical Analysis Based on CHFS Data

作　　者：公茂刚 巩子晗[2] GONG Mao-gang;GONG Zi-han(School of Economics,Shandong University of Technology,Zibo 255012,China;Research Center for Sinicization of Marxism,Shandong University of Technology,Zibo 255012,China)

机构地区：[1]山东理工大学经济学院,山东淄博255012 [2]山东理工大学马克思主义中国化研究中心,山东淄博255012

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》2022年第6期1069-1084,共16页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目(20BJY118);山东省自然科学基金面上项目(ZR2020MG045)。

摘　　要：基于中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,采用PSM、CMP等方法实证检验了家庭人口结构和土地流转对粮食生产的影响及土地流转的中介效应。研究发现:(1)土地转入和转出分别提高和降低了农户的粮食总产值。(2)家庭人口(16周岁及以上)平均年龄对粮食产出呈倒“U型”影响,并以40岁左右为转折点,体现了人口结构老龄化对粮食生产不利;家庭人口平均健康程度及农业户口人员比重均对农业产出具有正向影响;家庭人口性别结构和教育程度的影响不显著。(3)家庭人口结构、土地确权、农业补贴、农业生产各要素投入以及土地生产条件等因素不仅直接影响粮食生产而且还通过影响土地转入或转出进而作用于粮食产出。(4)土地转入和家庭人口结构对粮食产出的影响存在区域性差异,土地转入的影响在东、中部显著为正,西部显著为负;家庭人口结构的影响在东部和西部存在较大差异;土地转出的影响具有一致性。Based on the data of China Household Financial Survey(CHFS),the paper uses PSM,CMP and other methods to empirically examine the impact of household population structure and land transfer on grain production and the intermediary effect of land transfer.The findings are that:1) The transfer-in and transfer-out of land respectively increases and decreases the total food output value of farmers.2) The average age of family population(16 years old and above) has an inverted "U-shaped" effect on grain output,and the turning point is around 40 years old,which indicates that the aging of population structure is adverse to grain production;the average health degree of household population and the proportion of people with agricultural Hukou have a positive effect on agricultural output;the influence of gender structure and education level of family population is not significant.3) Factors such as household population structure,confirmation of land right,agricultural subsidies,various inputs for agricultural production and land conditions not only directly affect grain production,but also affect grain output through influencing land transfer-in or transfer-out.4) There are regional differences in the impact of land transfer-in and household population structure on grain output,the influence of land transfer is significantly positive in the eastern and central regions,and significantly negative in the western regions;the influence of family demographic structure differs greatly between the east and the west;but the influence of land transfer is consistent.

关 键 词：家庭人口结构 土地转入 土地转出 粮食产出 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济] O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]