联盟管理视域下拜登政府的对台政策联动分析  

An Analysis of the Biden Administration’s Policy Linkage towards Taiwan from the Perspective of Alliance Management

作　　者：冯晨曦 Feng Chenxi

机构地区：[1]北京大学国际关系学院,北京100871

出　　处：《台湾研究集刊》2022年第6期48-62,共15页Taiwan Research Journal

基　　金：2019年度国家社科基金重大项目“‘一国两制’台湾方案研究”(19ZDA129)。

摘　　要：拜登政府将中国视为“最严峻竞争对手”,不断强化对华战略威慑。为了优化遏制中国的成本与收益比,拜登政府提高了台湾问题在中美战略博弈中的“砝码效应”,在改进联盟管理与强化对台政策联动方面双向发力。拜登政府的对台安全协作正在转向“渐进式清晰”以配合“渐进式台独”,并通过“舆论战”“意识形态战”“军事竞争”等“总体战”策略,依照联盟化、议题设置、政治上联合发声、经贸上强化绑定与军事上加强合作的路径,不断紧固美日同盟、美澳同盟,加紧构建“美日+1”“美澳+1”等“小多边”体系,并立足于“分层小多边”打造“复合大多边”同盟体系。这将严重危害台海局势以及中国解决台湾问题的外交环境、军事环境和经济环境。对此,我们必须提高总体能力,坚持底线思维,坚决反对“台独”势力扩张,形成反“台独”的国际合力。The Biden administration regards China as the“most severe competitor”and constantly strengthens its strategic deterrence against China.In order to optimize the cost-to-benefit ratio of containing China,the Biden administration has enhanced the“weight effect”of the Taiwan question in the strategic game between China and the United States.It has made two-way efforts to improve alliance management and strengthen policy linkage with Taiwan.The Biden administration’s security cooperation with Taiwan is becoming“gradually clear”in correspondence with the“gradual independence of Taiwan”.In the meanwhile,it has launched the“total war”strategies including“public opinion war”,“ideological war”and“military competition”.To strengthen the U.S.-Japan alliance and the U.S.-Australia alliance,the Biden administration has taken on a path of political alliance,agenda setting,political joint voice,economic and trade binding,and military cooperation.Not only are these measures in place to facilitate the construction of small multilateral systems such as“U.S.-Japan+1”and“U.S.-Australia+1”,but they expedite the making of the“layered small multilateral”systems to form a“composite big multilateral”alliance system.These policies and actions seriously endanger the situation in the Taiwan Straits and harm China’s diplomatic,military,and economic environment for resolving the Taiwan question.Thus,we must enhance our national power,prepare for the worst-case scenario,absolutely oppose the expansion of“Taiwan independence”forces,and form an international joint force against“Taiwan independence”.

关 键 词：联盟管理 拜登政府 政策联动 俄乌冲突 

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