大陆经济政策不确定性对两岸价值链关联的影响研究  

The Impact of Chinese Mainland Economic Policy Uncertainty on Cross-Straits Value Chain Linkages

作　　者：曹小衡[1] 丛钰涵 Cao Xiaoheng;Cong Yuhan

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院台湾经济研究所,天津300071 [2]南开大学经济学院,天津300071

出　　处：《台湾研究集刊》2022年第6期63-83,共21页Taiwan Research Journal

基　　金：南开大学文科发展基金科学研究类一般项目“海峡两岸经济融合发展指数构建及影响因素研究”(ZB22BZ0209);亚洲研究中心资助项目“新格局下两岸产业融合高质量发展研究”(AS2222)。

摘　　要：使用2009-2019年ADB MRIO数据,在分别测算了基于关联方式及关联层次视角的两岸制造业价值链关联程度基础上,可以利用受限Tobit模型剖析大陆经济政策不确定性对两岸价值链关联的影响及作用机制。结果表明:(1)大陆经济政策不确定性上升会降低两岸在全球价值链中的关联程度,对直接和浅度价值链关联的抑制作用明显强于间接和深度价值链关联。(2)经济政策不确定性对两岸制造业价值链关联的影响存在异质性,低技术与中高技术制造业呈现显著差异。(3)进一步研究发现:大陆经济政策不确定性波动提升较水平提升会产生更大的边际影响;大陆经济政策不确定性会通过台湾FDI流入路径对直接和浅度价值链关联产生影响,通过贸易成本路径对间接和深度价值链关联产生影响。本研究将从单边判断经济政策不确定性对两岸价值链嵌入的影响研究拓展至双边价值链关联领域,并探究二者的作用机理,为增进构建两岸制造业价值链关联提供理论和经验依据。Based on ADB MRIO data from 2009 to 2019,this article on one hand measures the degree of the cross-Straits manufacturing value chain linkages in terms of the means of linkages and the levels of linkages,and on the other hand uses the restricted Tobit model to analyze the impact of the Chinese mainland’s economic policy uncertainty on cross-Straits value chain linkages.The research results show that:(1)The increasing uncertainty in the Chinese mainland’s economic policy reduces the extent of cross-Straits value chain linkages,and its inhibitory effect on direct and shallow value chain linkages is more significant than indirect and deep value chain linkages;(2)The impact of economic policy uncertainty on the cross-Straits manufacturing value chain linkages is varied.There is a significant difference between low-tech and medium-and high-tech manufacturing industries;(3)Further research found that the volatility of Chinese mainland’s economic policy has a greater marginal effect than the level of it.Chinese mainland economic policy uncertainty will shape direct and shallow value chain linkages through the inflow path of Taiwan’s FDI and affect indirect and deep value chain linkages through the trade cost path.This research goes beyond the unilateral judgment of the impact of economic policy uncertainty on cross-Straits value chain participation.It extends to the field of bilateral value chain linkages and explores the linkage mechanism,which could provide theoretical and empirical basis for enhancing the construction of cross-Straits manufacturing value chain linkages.

关 键 词：经济政策不确定性 价值链关联 两岸投资 贸易成本 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]