美国对华人工智能政策:权力博弈还是安全驱动  

US AI Policy towards China:Power Game or Security Driven

作　　者：朱荣生 陈琪[2] Zhu Rongsheng;Chen Qi(Strategic Planning Department,Qiyuan Laboratory,Tsinghua University;Department of International Relations,Tsinghua University)

机构地区：[1]清华大学启元实验室战略规划部 [2]清华大学国际关系学系

出　　处：《和平与发展》2022年第6期47-70,154,155,共26页Peace and Development

基　　金：国家社会科学基金“人工智能的国际安全挑战与规范演进研究”(项目编号:21CGJ012)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：世界主要大国愈益把发展人工智能提升到国家战略的高度,引发了科技竞争的政策辩论。通过对特朗普和拜登两届政府的过程性考察发现,美国对华人工智能政策在其官僚机构的讨论和执行中具有复杂的权衡,存在一定的权力/安全分化的政策驱动张力。从政策取向来看,白宫和国务院执着于污名化中国的人工智能应用,对制度领导权和规则制定权表现出长期偏好,而国防部、财政部和商务部则在维护美国技术霸权和供应稳定性的不同情境下表现出决策矛盾和立场交换现象。尽管存在政策驱动的差异,两届政府都极力进行协调以推进军事智能化的迭代。就政策输出趋势而言,美军对进攻性武器的赋能不仅将降低维护中美战略稳定信号的可信度,也加深了中美安全困境的程度。对美国人工智能技术政治化所释放的复杂信号的理论解读,有助于为智能时代全球安全治理和中美互动提供相对精细的视角和政策含义。Major countries in the world have successively elevated the development of artificial intelligence(AI)to the height of national strategy,triggering a fierce competition in science and technology among them.Through the investigation of the relevant policies of the Trump and Biden administrations,this paper finds that the US AI competition against China has a strong color of power politics,but the relevant bureaucracies have a certain internal impetus in power/security differentiation in the process of policy implementation.From the perspective of the policy orientation of the US bureaucracy,the White House and the State Department are obsessed with“stigmatizing”China’s AI application and show a long-term preference for institutional leadership and rule-making power,while the Departments of Defense,Treasury and Commerce have contradictory decisions and position exchanges in the specific implementation of safeguarding the US technological hegemony and supply stability.In promoting the iteration of military intelligence,the US military’s ability to enable offensive weapons not only reduces the credibility of the signal of maintaining strategic stability,but also deepens the degree of security dilemma between China and the United States.These findings help to understand the complex signals released by the politicization of artificial intelligence technology in the United States,and provide possible perspectives and directions for exploring global security governance in the age of intelligence.

关 键 词：中美竞争 人工智能 权力与安全 全球治理 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]