基于CMIP6模式的西南地区冬季昆明准静止锋变化趋势分析  

Variation Trend Analysis of Kunming Quasi Stationary Front in Winter in Southwest China Based on CMIP6

作　　者：吴建蓉 邹玮 文屹 肖书舟 黄军凯 WU Jian-rong;ZOU Wei;WEN Yi;XIAO Shu-zhou;HUANG Jun-kai(Guizhou Power Grid Co.,Ltd.,Electric Power Research Institute,Guiyang 550000,China;Guizhou Electric Power Design&Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Guiyang 550000,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院,贵州贵阳550000 [2]中国电建集团贵州电力设计研究院有限公司,贵州贵阳550000

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2022年第12期11-14,37,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：贵州电网有限责任公司科技项目(066600KK52180047)。

摘　　要：基于CMIP6计划中的ACCESS-CM2模式输出的每小时降水量、近地面气温及比湿数据,采用EOF正交函数分解法研究云贵地区昆明准静止锋在历史冬季时期(1973~2014年)的时空分布,并考虑不同外界强迫情景,分析了未来近期(2015年12月~2064年2月)和未来远期(2064年12月~2100年2月)的气象要素变化趋势。结果表明,冬季云贵地区的近地面气温主要特征为低温空间分布,且云南和贵州的近地面气温变化特征呈反位相分布,昆明准静止锋主要位于沾益一带,两省降水量和近地面比湿均呈正位相变化;空间变化趋势上,随着外界强迫程度加强,昆明准静止锋东移至贵州省西部,雨带位置随锋面的移动东移至贵州区域;时间变化趋势上,未来近期贵州地区近地面气温、每小时降水量和比湿均增大,未来远期气温和比湿的增幅较小,降水量变化趋势不明显。Based on the hourly precipitation,near-surface air temperature and specific humidity data output by the ACCESS-CM2 model in the CMIP6 program,the EOF method was used to study the spatiotemporal distribution of the Kunming quasi-stationary front in the Yunnan-Guizhou area during historical winter period(1973-2014).Considering different external forcing scenarios,the variation trends of meteorological elements in the near future(December 2015-February 2064)and long-term future(December 2064-February 2100)were analyzed.The results show that the Yunnan-Guizhou region has a spatial distribution of low temperature in winter,and the near-surface temperature variation in Yunnan and Guizhou show an anti-phase distribution.The Kunming quasi-stationary front is mainly located in the Zhanyi,and the precipitation and near-surface specific humidity in the two provinces show positive phase changes;In terms of spatial distribution variation,with the strengthening of external forcing,the Kunming quasi-stationary front moved eastward to the west of Guizhou Province,causing the position of the rain belt to move eastward to the Guizhou region;In terms of temporal trends,the near-surface temperature,hourly precipitation and specific humidity in Guizhou will increase in the near future.But the increase of temperature and specific humidity is small in the long-term future,and the trend of precipitation change is not obvious.

关 键 词：昆明准静止锋 CMIP6模式 西南区域 降水 气温 比湿 

分 类 号：TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源] TM751[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]