2004—2020年安徽省血吸虫病流行趋势Joinpoint回归分析  

Trends in the prevalence of schistosomiasis in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2020 based on Joinpoint regression analysis

作　　者：高风华[1] 丁宋军[1] 张世清[1] 汪天平[1] 何家昶[1] 许晓娟[1] 代波[1] 刘婷 GAO Feng-hua;DING Song-jun;ZHANG Shi-qing;WANG Tian-ping;HE Jia-chang;XU Xiao-juan;DAI Bo;LIU Ting(Anhui Provincial Institute of Schistosomiasis Control,Hefei,Anhui 230061,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽省血吸虫病防治研究所,安徽合肥230061

出　　处：《中国血吸虫病防治杂志》2022年第5期469-474,共6页Chinese Journal of Schistosomiasis Control

摘　　要：目的 分析2004—2020年安徽省血吸虫病疫情变化趋势,为制定该省消除血吸虫病策略提供参考依据。方法收集2004—2020年安徽省血吸虫病疫情数据,采用Joinpoint回归模型对血吸虫病疫情趋势变化进行分析。以平均年度变化百分比(annual average percent change, AAPC)评价人、牛和钉螺血吸虫感染变化趋势,并应用相关分析法探究人群血吸虫感染率、牛血吸虫感染率和感染性钉螺密度变化趋势间的相关性。结果 2004—2020年,安徽省人群血吸虫感染率持续下降,年均下降14.8%[AAPC=-14.8%,95%置信区间(confidential interval, CI):(-18.9%,-10.5%),P <0.01]。2004—2015年,安徽省牛血吸虫感染率持续下降[AAPC=-31.3%,95%CI:(-35.1%,-27.2%),P <0.01],2016—2020年连续5年感染率为0。2004—2020年,安徽省有螺面积年均下降0.7%[AAPC=-0.7%,95%CI:(-1.2%,0.3%),P <0.05],活螺密度年均下降9.2%[AAPC=-9.2%,95%CI:(-18.3%,1.0%),P=0.08];2004—2012年感染性钉螺密度持续下降[AAPC=-35.6%,95%CI:(-49.2%,-18.3%),P <0.01],2013—2020年均未发现感染性钉螺。2004—2020年,安徽省人群血吸虫感染率和牛感染率、人群血吸虫感染率和感染性钉螺密度、牛血吸虫感染率和感染性钉螺密度间均具有显著相关性(r=0.959、0.823、0.902,P均<0.01)。结论 2004—2020年安徽省人、牛、钉螺血吸虫感染率均呈下降趋势,且三者间显著相关;有螺面积下降幅度较小、钉螺分布范围仍较广,血吸虫病传播风险依然存在,仍需加强精准防控。ObjectiveTo investigate the changing trends in the prevalence of schistosomiasis in Anhui Province from 2004 to2020, so as to provide the evidence for formulating the schistosomiasis elimination strategy in the province.MethodsThe epidemiological data of schistosomiasis in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2020 were collected, and the trends in the endemic status of schistosomiasis were analyzed using a Joinpoint regression model. The trends in the prevalence of Schistosoma japonicum infections in humans, bovines and Oncomelania hupensis were measured in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2020 using average annual percent change(AAPC), and the correlations among the changing trends in the prevalence of S. japonicum infections in humans,bovines and O. hupensis snail status were evaluated using Pearson correlation analysis.ResultsThe prevalence of S. japonicum human infections continued to decline in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2020, with an annual mean decline of 14.8% [AAPC =-14.8%,95% confidential interval(CI):(-18.9%,-10.5%), P < 0.01]. The prevalence of S. japonicum infections continued to decline in bovines in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2015 [AAPC =-31.3%, 95% CI:(-35.1%,-27.2%), P < 0.01], and was 0 for 5 successive years from 2016 to 2020. During the period from 2004 to 2020, there was an annual mean decline of 0.7% in areas of snail habitats [AAPC =-0.7%, 95% CI:(-1.2%, 0.3%), P < 0.05] and an annual mean decline of 9.2% in the density of living snails[AAPC =-9.2%, 95% CI:(-18.3%, 1.0%), P = 0.08] in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2020, and an annual mean decline of35.6% was found in the density of S. japonicum-infected snails [AAPC =-35.6%, 95% CI:(-49.2%,-18.3%), P < 0.01] from2004 to 2012, with no infected snails detected in Anhui Province from 2013 to 2020. There were significant correlations in the prevalence of S. japonicum infections between humans and bovines(r = 0.959, P < 0.01), between the prevalence of S. japonicum human infections and the density of S. japonicum-infected snails(r = 0.823, P < 0.01) and betwe

关 键 词：血吸虫病 流行趋势 Joinpoint回归分析 安徽省 

分 类 号：R532.21[医药卫生—内科学]