硬件企业的核心软件被断供风险的博弈分析  

Game analysis of hardware enterprises'core software outage risk

作　　者：辛文 林军[1] 王炳璇 殷珊 XIN Wen;LIN Jun;WANG Bingxuan;YIN Shan(School of Management,Xi'an Jiaotong University,Xi'an 710049,China)

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学管理学院,西安710049

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2022年第11期2891-2900,共10页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(72071154,71672140)。

摘　　要：针对在贸易制裁背景下,硬件企业如何防范其核心软件被断供风险这一问题,本文基于Hotelling模型构建被断供硬件与其他硬件产品间的双寡头竞争模型,通过对比政府发起的软件断供对断供发起国企业与被断供国企业的盈利变动产生的影响评估软件被断供风险,并提出相应的风险防范措施.研究表明,当市场中两家硬件企业归属同一国家时,软件被断供风险较小;其他情况下,仅当软件断供给被断供硬件企业带来的软件劣势较小时,软件被断供风险较小.此外,硬件企业的软件被断供风险随硬件质量、消费者对硬件的水平偏好、软件的单位收益的增加而下降.本研究论证了软件断供下软件断供发起国可能“伤敌八百,自损一千”,同时为硬件企业及其所在国家就如何应对他国政府发起的软件断供风险提供了决策支持和管理启示.This paper addresses the issue that what hardware enterprise should do to prevent the risk of core software outage in the context of trade sanction.This paper first constructs a duopoly Hotelling model of two competitive hardware products.Then the risk of software outage is evaluated by comparing the impact of software outage initiated by government on the profit change of the software firm and the hardware firm of which supply is cut off.Finally,corresponding risk coping strategies are proposed.Our analysis indicates that:When the two hardware enterprises belong to the same country,the software outage risk is small;otherwise,the software outage risk is small only when the competitive disadvantage of the hardware enterprise caused by the outage of software supply is small.Besides,the requirement for risk prevention is lowered with the increase of hardware quality,consumer preference and unit income from software.This study demonstrates that,in the case of software outage,the profit loss of the initiator country may be greater than that of the country of which the supply is cut-off,and provides decision supports and management implications for hardware enterprises and their countries on how to deal with the risk of software outage initiated by other governments.

关 键 词：博弈 风险防范 贸易制裁 软件断供 

分 类 号：F224.32[经济管理—国民经济]