祁连山特有濒危植物穴丝荠分布预测及其重要影响因子分析  

Distribution Prediction and Influential Factors Analysis of Coelonema draboides,an Endemic and Endangered Plant in Qilian Mountains

作　　者：陈凯扬 王博 陈晨[1,2,3] 周国英[1,2,3] CHEN Kaiyang;WANG Bo;CHEN Chen;ZHOU Guoying(Northwest Institute of Plateau Biology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Xining 810008,China;Key Laboratory of Tibetan Medicine Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Xining 810008,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院西北高原生物研究所,西宁810008 [2]中国科学院藏药研究重点实验室,西宁8100081 [3]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《西北植物学报》2022年第11期1954-1961,共8页Acta Botanica Boreali-Occidentalia Sinica

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFC0507404)。

摘　　要：穴丝荠是祁连山特有濒危植物,预测潜在适生区可为穴丝荠的保护与研究提供重要参考。基于地理分布记录和环境因子变量数据,采用MaxEnt和ArcGIS模型,利用41个有效分布点和28个环境因子,模拟了穴丝荠当代、未来(2050s、2070s)RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5气候情景下在祁连山的适生分布区,并筛选影响其分布的主导因子。结果显示:(1)训练数据集的AUC值均值达到0.948,随机误差均值达0.043,表明MaxEnt模型模拟预测精度较高。(2)影响穴丝荠分布的主导因子有海拔、平均气温日较差、等温性、最潮湿度月份的降水量和土壤有机质,这些环境因子占总贡献率的87.4%。(3)海拔在3000~4000 m处,平均温度日较差在10℃~12℃,等温性为32~35,最潮湿月份的降水在140~160 mm,土壤有机质含量在1.2%~1.5%时较适宜穴丝荠的生长,推测穴丝荠适合生长于热量低、日温差大且年温差小、寒冷半湿润型的高原气候。(4)在当代气候条件下,穴丝荠的潜在地理分布主要位于祁连山东部和南部地区,随着气候变化和时间推移,穴丝荠潜在适生区有缩小趋势,祁连山南部地区高度适生区向北部收缩,大部分集中于祁连山保护区内。(5)未来应首先考虑重点保护祁连山保护区内的种群,并可将祁连山保护区南部一带作为保护区域进行就地保护。Coelonema draboides is an endangered plant endemic to the Qilian Mountains.Prediction of potential suitable areas of C.draboides can provide important reference for conservation and research of C.draboides.Based on geographical distribution records and environmental factor variables,we used MaxEnt and ArcGIS models to simulate the suitable distribution areas of C.draboides in the Qilian Mountains under three climate scenarios,namely the present and future(2050s,2070s)RCP2.6,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5,using 41 effective distribution points and 28 environmental factors.The leading factors affecting the distribution were screened.The results show that:(1)the mean value of AUC of training data sets is 0.948,and the mean value of random error is 0.043,so the MaxEnt model has a high simulation prediction accuracy.(2)The main factors affecting the geographical distribution of C.draboides were altitude,diurnal range of average temperature,isotherm,precipitation in the wettest month and soil organic matter,which accounted for 87.4%of the total contribution rate.(3)When the altitude is 3000-4000 m,the average daily temperature range is 10-12℃,the isotherm is 32-35,the precipitation in the wettest month is 140-160 mm,the soil organic matter is 1.2%-1.5%,and the annual average temperature is 0-25℃,it is suitable for the growth of C.draboides.It is speculated that C.draboides is suitable for growing in low heat,large daily temperature difference and small annual temperature difference,cold and semi-humid plateau climate.(4)Under the current climate conditions,the potential geographical distribution of C.draboides was mainly located in the eastern and southern parts of Qilian Mountains.With the change of climate and time,the potential suitable area of C.draboides decreased,and the highly suitable area in the southern part of Qilian Mountains shrank to the north,and most of them were concentrated in the Qilian Mountain protection area.(5)In the future,it can be considered to focus on protecting the species in the Qilian Mountains Re

关 键 词：穴丝荠 潜在适生区 祁连山 MAXENT 主导因子 

分 类 号：Q948.13[生物学—植物学] Q949.748.3