人口老龄化与出口技术结构升级——基于中国市级面板数据的分析  

Population Aging and Upgrade of Export Technology Structure——Analysis Based on Municipal Panel Data in China

作　　者：杨盈竹 赵乐祥 YANG Yingzhu;ZHAO Lexiang(School of Economics,Peking University,Beijing,10087l;China Investment Corporation,Beijing,100010;PBC School of Finance,Tsinghua University,Beijing,100084)

机构地区：[1]北京大学经济学院,北京100871 [2]中国投资有限责任公司博士后工作站,北京100010 [3]清华大学五道口金融学院,北京100084

出　　处：《国际商务（对外经济贸易大学学报）》2022年第6期1-17,共17页INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“习近平总书记的绿色发展理念研究”(20JZD002);对外经济贸易大学区域国别研究联合专项课题“数字经济合作带动金砖国家新工业革命伙伴关系建设研究”(LHZX202209)。

摘　　要：本文基于2000年和2010年全国人口普查、2005年人口抽样调查的市级数据和海关数据库,在三部门出口技术结构模型的基础上,将劳动力市场和资本市场引入分析框架,从理论模型和实证检验两个层面探讨老龄化对中国出口技术结构的影响及作用机制。研究发现:人口老龄化促进了中国出口结构优化升级;随着出口技术结构水平的提高,人口老龄化对出口技术结构提升的边际效应逐渐下降;人口老龄化通过产业结构升级和要素禀赋效应促进了出口技术结构升级。An extended three-sector export technology structure model with labor market and capital market was employed to examine the impact of population aging on China’s export technology structure.On the basis of the theoretical model, this paper carried out an empirical study based on national population census data in 2000 and 2001,1% national population sampling survey data in 2005 and Chinese Customs database.The results show that the population ageing significantly promotes the optimization and upgrade of China’s export structure.And as the level of export technology structure increases, the marginal effect of population aging on the improvement of export technology structure decreases gradually.Population aging promotes the upgrade of export technology structure through industrial structure upgrade effect and factor endowment structure effect.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 出口技术结构 要素禀赋理论 产业结构升级 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易]