能源危机、能源转型与电力市场  

Energy Crises,Energy Transition,and Electricity Market

作　　者：冯永晟[1] FENG Yongsheng(National Academy of Economic Strategy,CASS,100006)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院财经战略研究院,北京市100006

出　　处：《财经智库》2022年第5期5-34,145,共31页Financial Minds

基　　金：中国社会科学院基础研究学者项目“提高要素资源配置效率的市场机制、国有企业与政府监管——以电力行业为例”(XJ2020007);国家电网管理咨询项目“京津唐电网容量和调节容量协同保障机制研究”。

摘　　要：能源危机的频发预示能源转型之路不会一帆风顺,中国积极稳妥推进碳达峰碳中和进程需要准确把握能源危机、能源转型与电力市场间的关系。本文从理解能源转型进程中的能源危机入手,重点结合欧洲能源危机实际情况,提供理解能源转型进程中能源安全的理论框架和政策分析,指出能源转型的可持续性由转型平衡能力和内生平衡能力共同决定,能力失衡必然造成能源安全隐患,构成能源危机的根源。同时,本文还指出,欧洲能源危机未改变欧洲能源转型方向,反而在加速内生平衡能力的构建,其重点是深化电力市场改革。以理论框架和经验分析为基础,本文还探讨了中国能源转型和电力市场建设的问题和建议。The frequent occurrence of energy crises indicates that the path to energy transition is not an easy one,and that China needs to understand the relationship between energy crises,energy transition and the electricity market in order to actively and steadily promote the process of carbon peaking and carbon neutralization.This paper provides a theoretical framework and policy analysis for understanding the energy transition process starting from the understanding of the energy crisis in the energy transition process.Focusing on the actual situation of the European energy crisis,and pointing out that the sustainability of energy transition is determined by both the transitional balancing capabilities and the endogenous balancing capabilities,and that the imbalance in the capabilities to balance the transition causes energy security risks and constitutes the root cause of the energy crisis.At the same time,the paper also points out that the European energy crisis has not changed the direction of the European energy transition,but is instead accelerating the construction of endogenous balancing capabilities,with a focus on deepening electricity market reforms.Based on the theoretical framework and empirical analysis,this paper discusses the issues about and suggestions for China’s energy transition and electricity market reform.The risk of an energy crisis accompanies the energy transition process,but it is by no means a factor that will reverse or even stall it.China’s resource endowment,technological capacity,market potential,institutional foundation,and reform wisdom are enough for the country to accelerate the construction of a new modern energy system.

关 键 词：能源危机 电力危机 能源转型 电力市场 

分 类 号：F426.2[经济管理—产业经济]