宏观经济预测和财政预测能力建设:基于中期支出框架的视角  

Improve the Capacity of Macroeconomic Forecast and Fiscal Forecast:From the Perspective of Medium-Term Expenditure Framework

作　　者：孙琳[1] 徐苏徽 张沛然 SUN Lin;XU Suhui;ZHANG Peiran(School of Economics,Fudan University,200433;School of Medicine,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,200025)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学经济学院,上海市200433 [2]上海交通大学医学院,上海市200025

出　　处：《财经智库》2022年第5期49-96,146,147,共50页Financial Minds

基　　金：上海市教育委员会科研创新重大项目“财政资金约束、债务风险控制和国家治理能力提升研究”(2019-01-07-00-07-E00034)。

摘　　要：新冠肺炎疫情在全球蔓延加大了世界范围内经济发展的不确定性,而数字技术蓬勃发展则为“完善宏观调控跨周期设计和调节”,提升宏观经济预测和财政预测能力,实现稳增长和防风险长期均衡提供了更为广阔的空间。本文基于中期支出框架的视角,比较分析日本、美国、英国和澳大利亚四个典型国家的官方预测体系,汲取四国在部门架构、操作流程、模型思路和数据系统方面的经验。同时,为了加强我国宏观经济预测和财政预测能力,精准实施逆周期宏观调控政策,防止经济风险累积、传染和扩散,本文提出应综合运用大数据、云计算等数字技术,拓宽数据获取渠道,建设各级政府及其部门的信息交换和数据共享系统;在中央政府层面,加强国家发改委和中国人民银行在宏观经济预测中的指引作用,增进财政部、税务总局和海关总署在财政预测中的协同作用;开发和改进预测模型时,应当依据现实国情做出合理的理论假设,并开展前瞻性专题研究。In the context of global spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and vigorous development of digital technology,strengthening the capacity of macroeconomic forecast and fiscal forecast is an important prerequisite for "improving the design and adjustment of cross-cycle macro-regulation" and realizing the long-run steady growth and risk prevention.Based on the medium-term expenditure framework,this paper compares and analyzes the official forecast systems of the representative countries:Japan,the United States,the United Kingdom and Australia,thus drawing on the experience of the four countries in terms of the department structure,operation process,model ideas and data systems.At the same time,in order to improve the capacity of macroeconomic forecast and fiscal forecast,the paper proposes that digital technologies such as big data and cloud computing should be comprehensively utilized to broaden data access channels,and an information exchange and data sharing system should be built for different levels of governments and departments.At the level of the central government,it is necessary to strengthen the guiding role of the National Development and Reform Commission and the People’s Bank of China in macroeconomic forecasts,and enhance the synergy among the Ministry of Finance,the State Administration of Taxation and the General Administration of Customs in fiscal forecasts.When developing and improving forecast models,reasonable theoretical assumptions should be made according to the actual national conditions,and forward-looking research should be carried out accordingly.These measures will help accurately implement counter-cyclical macro-regulation policies and prevent the accumulation,contagion and spread of economic risks.

关 键 词：宏观经济预测 财政预测 中期支出框架 

分 类 号：F113[经济管理—国际贸易]