国内旅游消费与人力资本相关性研究——基于GRA与VAR模型的实证分析  

Research on the Correlation between Domestic Tourism Consumption and Human Capital——Empirical Research Based on GRA and VAR Model

作　　者：徐紫嫣 Xu Ziyan

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学商学院

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2022年第6期177-181,共5页Price:Theory & Practice

基　　金：中国社会科学院大学“研创计划”科学研究项目“人力资本对中国旅游消费影响研究”(2022-KY-28)。

摘　　要：旅游是满足人民群众对美好生活向往的重要方面。加强影响旅游消费的因素研究,促进旅游消费持续快速发展,对推进文化和旅游深度融合发展具有重要的现实意义。采用全国1994-2020年的统计数据,对影响旅游消费的因素进行实证分析,发现居民人均收入和人力资本水平与旅游消费的关联度最高,人力资本是影响居民旅游消费的主要因素之一。选取国内人均旅游花费、居民人均收入和人力资本水平三个关联度最高且相互影响的变量构建向量自回归模型,分析了人力资本对国内人均旅游花费的动态影响,结果显示:人力资本水平提升对国内人均旅游花费增长具有长期推动作用。基于此,应努力提升人力资本积累,优化人力资本结构,重视数字化赋能旅游业发展。Tourism plays an important role to realize people’s aspirations for a better life. Strengthening the research on the factors affecting tourism consumption and promoting the sustainable and rapid development of tourism consumption is of great practical significance for promoting the in-depth integration of culture and tourism. This paper uses the national statistical data from 1994 to 2020 to make an empirical analysis of the factors that affected the tourism consumption, and proves that the per capita income of the resident and the level of human capital perform the highest correlation with the tourism consumption, meanwhile, human capital is one of the main factors that affects the residents’ tourism consumption. The author selected tourism consumption, residents’ per capita income and human capital level as three variables with the highest correlation and interaction, and constructed a vector autoregressive model to analyze the dynamic relationship between the human capital and tourism consumption. The empirical conclusion shows that the improvement of human capital level plays a long-term role in promoting the growth of domestic tourism consumption. Based on this, we should strive to improve the accumulation of human capital, optimize the structure of human capital, and attach importance to the development of digital empowerment tourism industry.

关 键 词：国内旅游消费 人力资本 居民人均收入 

分 类 号：F592[经济管理—旅游管理] F249.2[经济管理—产业经济]