小宗农产品价格风险识别及其应对策略研究——以大葱、生姜、大蒜为例  

Research on Price Risk identification of Small-scale Agricultural Products and Its Countermeasures——Taking Green Onion, Ginger and Garlic as Examples

作　　者：张有望 许月艳 刘姣姣 Zhang Youwang;Xu Yueyan;Liu JiaoJiao

机构地区：[1]东北农业大学经济管理学院 [2]华中农业大学经济管理学院 [3]武汉工程大学管理学院

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2022年第10期111-114,213,共5页Price:Theory & Practice

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金资助项目“中国农产品现货市场价格风险评价、传导与防控研究”(2021M700740);黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究规划项目“黑龙江省农户参与粮食全产业链融合利益联结机制及增收效应研究”(21JYC238);东北农业大学青年才俊项目“蔬菜市场泡沫风险的测度、特征与形成机理研究—以黑龙江省为例”(20QC25)。

摘　　要：考察我国大葱、生姜和大蒜价格风险水平和特征,能够为更针对性地防控小宗农产品价格风险提供借鉴。本文基于2008-2021年我国大葱、生姜和大蒜价格数据,通过GSADF检验,探究三种小宗农产品极端价格风险,结果表明:大葱、生姜、大蒜价格均存在泡沫,泡沫出现时多伴随价格短时期内的暴涨或暴跌。三种小宗农产品泡沫风险水平和特征存在差异,风险水平由大到小依次是生姜、大蒜、大葱,大葱价格泡沫以持续时间较短的短泡沫为主,生姜和大蒜价格长短泡沫同时存在,长泡沫在泡沫总时长中占据较大比重。基于研究结果,应从构建信息服务体系、完善市场交易法规体系、建立风险预警体系等方面,有效应对大葱、生姜和大蒜价格泡沫风险。The study on the risk level and characteristics of the price of green onion,ginger and garlic in China can provide reference for more targeted prevention and control of the price risk of small-scale agricultural products.Based on the price data of green onion,ginger and garlic in China from 2008 to 2021,this paper explored the extreme price risk of agricultural products through GSADF test.The results show that there are bubbles in the prices of green onion,ginger and garlic,and the bubbles are often accompanied by a sharp rise or fall in prices.There are differences in the risk level and characteristics of the three small-scale agricultural products bubbles,with ginger garlic and green onion in a descending order of risk level.The price bubble of green onion is mainly short bubble with short duration.The long and short bubbles of ginger and garlic prices exist at the same time,and the long bubbles account for a large proportion of the total duration of bubbles.Based on the study,it is more effective to deal with the price bubble risk of green onion,ginger and garlic on constructing information service system,improving market transaction regulation system and establishing risk early warning system.

关 键 词：小宗农产品 价格风险 价格泡沫 GSADF检验 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]