贸易中介提升了本土企业的生存能力吗——基于中国出口微观数据的研究  

Do Trade Intermediaries Prolong the Survival of Local Firms——A Study Based on China’s Micro Export Data

作　　者：葛新庭 谢建国 GE Xinting;XIE Jianguo

机构地区：[1]南京大学长江三角洲经济社会发展研究中心 [2]南京大学经济学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2022年第11期123-138,共16页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“基于要素生产与要素创造的大国贸易利益分配:逻辑、动力与测度研究”(72073062);教育部人文社会科学基金项目“比较优势迁移、生产重构与大国贸易利益分配:机制、影响与评估”(20YJA790074);江苏省社会科学基金项目“江苏高质量发展与现代开放经济体系构建研究”(19EYB003)。

摘　　要：贸易中介为间接出口商提供了从事对外贸易的机会,但由于间接出口商和直接出口商的出口效应不同,对企业存续的影响可能相异。本文基于2000—2013年中国海关数据与工业企业数据,利用生存分析模型,研究了贸易中介对中国本土企业存续的影响。研究结果显示,借助贸易中介间接出口不仅无法从海外市场中获益,反而损伤了企业生命力,直接出口才能降低生存风险;进一步的研究发现,间接出口企业实现向直接出口模式的转变,会对企业存续产生积极影响。机制检验表明,贸易中介导致间接出口企业可变成本提高,对企业生产率和单位利润起到抑制作用,继而增加企业生存风险。研究结果表明:(1)未达到间接出口阈值的企业选择贸易中介对企业存续只会产生负效应,依据自身生产率条件选择合适的贸易模式是本土企业参与国际化的正确策略;(2)一味地依靠贸易中介间接出口无异于“温水煮青蛙”,只有实现出口模式转换,真正参与国际市场,才能在激烈的国际竞争中守得一席之地。Trade intermediaries provide indirect exporters with the opportunity to engage in foreign trade,nevertheless,the impacts on firm survival may differ due to the different export effects of indirect and direct exporters.Based on the data of China Customs database and industrial firms,this paper investigates the impact of trade intermediaries on the survival of Chinese local firms using a survival analysis model.The results show that indirect exporters not only fail to benefit from overseas markets,but also damage corporate vitality,while direct exporters are able to reduce the survival risk.Further research finds that a switch from the indirect export mode to the direct export mode has a positive effect on firm survival.Mechanism tests suggest that trade intermediaries lead to an increase in variable costs of indirect exporters,which has a negative effect on the productivity and unit profit of firms,thereby increasing the survival risk.Our conclusion indicates:(1)for firms that do not reach the indirect export threshold,trade intermediaries only have a negative effect on firm survival,so the right strategy for local firms to enter the international market is to select the appropriate trade mode based on their productivity level;(2)relying on trade intermediaries to export indirectly is not a sustainable long-term strategy,and the only way to gain advantages in the fierce international competition is to switch to the direct export mode and deeply integrate into the global market.

关 键 词：贸易中介 贸易模式 企业存续 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易]