基于中国-中南半岛贸易特征的中老铁路货运增量目标市场评价  

Evaluation of China-Laos Railway Freight Incremental Target Market Based on China-Indochina Peninsula Trade Characteristics

作　　者：李樱灿 LI Yingcan(Transportation&Economics Research Institute,China Academy of Railway Sciences Corporation Limited,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中国铁道科学研究院集团有限公司运输及经济研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《铁道运输与经济》2022年第11期82-88,共7页Railway Transport and Economy

基　　金：中国铁道科学研究院集团有限公司科研项目(2021YJ119)。

摘　　要：中老铁路的建成开通积极促进了“一带一路”倡议的深入实施,打造了中国-中南半岛地区高质量贸易通道。在梳理中国与中南半岛7个国家贸易总额现状、货物品类情况与贸易依赖度的基础上,分析了中国-中南半岛地区间贸易不均衡、货物结构相对稳定与贸易依赖度逐渐密切等主要贸易特征。采用网络层次分析法,从进出口2个方向,各选择8个货物目标市场,从市场需求、产业规模、贸易额度、运输条件要求、运输时效要求及货物价值6个维度进行评价,评价结果显示去程以电子、电气、工业机械类为主,弥补老挝存在的产业空缺;回程以矿渣矿砂与纸类为主,保障老挝国内主要产业产品输出,为中老铁路增量决策提供重要支撑。China-Laos Railway has promoted the further implementation of the“Belt and Road Initiative”and created a high-quality trade corridor between China and the Indochina Peninsula.This paper first summarized the current total trade volume,goods categories,and trade dependence between China and seven countries in the Indochina Peninsula.It then analyzed the trade characteristics of trade imbalance,relatively stable goods structure,and gradually close trade dependence between China and the Indochina Peninsula.With analytic network process(ANP),eight goods target markets were selected from the two directions of import and export.The evaluation was conducted from six dimensions containing market demand,industrial scale,trade quota,transportation requirements,transportation timeliness requirements,and goods value.Evaluation results show that the outbound goods are mainly electronic,electrical,and industrial machinery,which compensate for industrial vacancies in Laos.The return goods are mainly slag,ore,and paper,ensuring the export of major industrial products in Laos.The research provides support for incremental decision-making of the China-Laos Railway.

关 键 词：中老铁路 目标市场 贸易特征 网络层次分析法 评价指标 

分 类 号：F531.3[经济管理—产业经济]