中国财政支出的贸易收支效应悖论及其解释——基于贸易条件视角的形成机制分析  

Paradox between China’s Government Spending and Trade Balance and Its Explanation:Analysis Based on the Perspective of Terms of Trade

作　　者：林峰[1] 曾毅[1] 赵焱 LIN Feng;ZENG Yi;ZHAO Yan(South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510006;Nanjing University of Finance and Economics,Nanjing 210023)

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学经济与金融学院,广东广州510006 [2]南京财经大学财政与税务学院,江苏南京210023

出　　处：《财贸研究》2022年第12期35-48,共14页Finance and Trade Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“破解中国财政支出的贸易收支效应悖论:考虑居民消费习惯因素的理论解释、实证识别与政策设计”(71903057);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“中国扩张性财政政策的贸易收支效应悖论:考虑居民消费习惯因素的机理研究”(19YJC790073)。

摘　　要：基于贸易条件视角分析“中国式悖论”形成的理论机理,并采用带有随机波动率的时变参数结构向量自回归(SV-TVP-SVAR)模型识别中国财政支出、贸易条件与贸易收支之间的时变关系,为廓清“中国式悖论”提供了经验证据。理论模型表明,由于中国的Armington弹性(即本国产品与外国产品间的替代弹性)较大,因而财政支出扩张会导致贸易条件恶化,降低投资回报率并挤出国内投资。如果投资的挤出效应超过预算平衡的恶化效应,则可能形成“中国式悖论”。实证结果显示,中国将会经历“双重发散”和“双重赤字”交替出现的时变过程,原因主要在于:2012年开始中国的贸易条件恶化效应不断减弱,财政支出冲击对国内投资的影响经历了“由负到正”的逆向波动,从而导致贸易收支效应呈现出先改善后恶化的时变特征。This paper analyzes theoretical mechanism of paradox formation based on the perspective of terms of trade,and uses the SV-TVP-SVAR model to identify time-varying relationship between China’s government spending,terms of trade,and trade balance,which provides empirical evidence to clarify the paradox.Theoretical model shows that,due to the greater Armington elasticity(namely,the elasticity of substitution between domestic and foreign products)in China,the expansion of government spending will lead to a deterioration of terms of trade,reduce the rate of return on investment,and crowd out domestic investment.If the crowding-out effect of investment exceeds the deteriorating effect of budget balance,the paradox may emerge.The empirical results show that China will experience a time-varying process of“twin divergence”and“twin deficits”alternately.The main reason is that,since 2012,the deteriorating effect of China’s terms of trade has been weakening,and the impact of government spending on domestic investment has experienced reverse fluctuations from negative to positive,resulting in the effect of trade balance showing a time-varying feature of first improvement and then deterioration.

关 键 词：财政支出 贸易收支 贸易条件 

分 类 号：F811.4[经济管理—财政学]