人口数量下降会导致经济增长放缓吗?——中国人力资源总量和经济长期增长潜力研究  

Will Population Decline Lead to Economic Slowdown?A Study on China’s Stock of Human Resources and Long-term Economic Growth Potential

作　　者：厉克奥博 李稻葵[1] 吴舒钰 Li Keaobo;Li Daokui;Wu Shuyu(Institute for Chinese Economic Practice and Thinking Tsinghua University)

机构地区：[1]清华大学中国经济思想与实践研究院,北京100084

出　　处：《人口研究》2022年第6期23-40,共18页Population Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大项目“韧性城市若干风险防控管理研究”(72091511)的支持。

摘　　要：近年来,经济学界的一个流行观点是随着人口总量见顶下降,中国经济增长潜力将会显著下降。在新的分析框架下研究发现,人力资源总量而不是人口总量更能决定长期经济发展潜力。人力资源总量是考虑了人口质量的社会劳动时间储备总和,而人口质量的核心因素是健康水平和受教育水平。研究表明,即便在相对悲观的人口增长预期下,中国人力资源总量仍将在2040年前持续增长,并将在2040~2050年保持稳定。假如中国的人力资源能够得到充分利用,未来30年中国经济的平均潜在增速将达到5.9%(2021~2030年)、4.9%(2031~2040年)、4.1%(2041~2050年)。为实现这一经济增长潜力,必须进一步加强终身教育,推进市场化弹性退休制度,维护好人力资源总量增长态势,更充分地利用好人力资源。In recent years,a popular view among economists has been that China’s economic growth potential will diminish significantly as Chinese population stops growing in the near future.We challenge this view and show that in fact,human resources,rather than the total population,is the key factor for long-term economic growth.The stock of human resources is the total reserves of labor hours adjusted for the quality of the population.The core metrics of the quality of population are the average health and educational attainment,respectively.The Chinese economy will still enjoy steady growth in total human resources through 2040 and then remain steady untill 2050.If China’s human resources can be effectively fully utilized,then the average growth potential of the Chinese economy will be 5.9%from 2021 to 2030,4.9%from 2031 to 2040,and 4.1%from 2041 to 2050.These findings imply that to maintain China’s long-term economic prosperity,it is imperative to further strengthen lifelong learning,advance a scheme of market-based flexible retirement,and to provide more incentives to enhance the willingness of the population to join the labor force.

关 键 词：人力资源总量 人口质量 中国经济 长期增长潜力 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学] F124.1