农户参保行为的溢出效应研究——基于“保险+期货”试点的准自然实验  

The spillover Effect of farmers’ Participation in Insurance:AQuasi-natural Experiment Based on the “insurance + futures” Pilot Projects

作　　者：尚燕 熊涛 李崇光[1] SHANG Yan;XIONG Tao;LI Chongguang

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院 [2]华中农业大学信息与价格预测运筹中心

出　　处：《中国农村观察》2022年第6期103-121,共19页China Rural Survey

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“基于动态模型平均的区间型预测技术及在农产品期货市场的应用研究”(编号:71771101);国家自然科学基金面上项目“‘金融化’背景下我国期货与现货市场风险评价与传导研究”(编号:71673103)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：本文基于“保险+期货”试点的准自然实验,运用倾向得分匹配等方法,以试点地区未参保农户作为处理组,以非试点地区农户作为控制组,探究农户参保行为的溢出效应及其作用机制,从农户层面探讨提高“保险+期货”参保率的新途径。研究发现:农户参保行为具有显著的溢出效应,试点地区未参保农户的参保意愿比非试点地区农户高10.0%~13.3%,即使更换不同估计方法,此结果依然稳健;上述溢出效应通过保险信息交流发生作用,即试点地区未参保农户通过与家人、邻居和亲朋交流保险信息提高其参保意愿;上述溢出效应使试点地区未参保农户的“保险+期货”认知水平得到明显提升。因此,应重视农户参保行为的溢出效应,积极发挥社会网络的保险信息交流作用,促进“保险+期货”的推广。Based on the quasi-natural experiment of the “insurance + futures” pilot, this article utilizes the propensity score matching method and takes uninsured farmers in pilot areas as the treatment group and farmers in non-pilot areas as the control group to explore the spillover effect and the mechanism of farmers’ participation behavior. The study discusses a new approach to improve the participation rate of “insurance + futures” from the perspective of farmers. The results show that the insurance participation of farmers has a significant spillover effect. The willingness of uninsured farmers in pilot areas to participate in insurance is 10.0%-13.3% higher than that in non-pilot areas. This result is still robust even if different models and methods are used.The above-mentioned spillover effect works through insurance information exchange, that is, uninsured farmers in pilot areas improve their willingness to participate in insurance by exchanging insurance information with their families, neighbors, and relatives. The above-mentioned spillover effect has significantly improved the cognition level of “insurance + futures” of uninsured farmers in pilot areas. Therefore, in promoting and developing “insurance + futures”, it is necessary to pay attention to the spillover effect of farmers’ participation in insurance and give full play to the information dissemination function of social networks and promote thepromotion of“insurance + futures” among farmers.

关 键 词：“保险+期货” 溢出效应 同伴参保示范 保险信息交流 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济]