自然禀赋与地区发展:兼论南北经济差距扩大现象  

Natural endowment and regional development:an interpretation of the widening gap of north-south economy

作　　者：苏红键[1] SU Hongjian(Rural Development Institute,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100732,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院农村发展研究所,北京100732

出　　处：《中国软科学》2022年第10期61-71,共11页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“城乡福祉、空间均衡与城镇化方略”(20FJLB019)。

摘　　要：针对2012年以来南北经济差距扩大现象,利用经济重心、人口重心等分析中国地区发展演进特征,论证在一国内部,由于政策的可推广性、知识的强溢出性、要素的高流动性,自然禀赋对地区发展具有相对重要性,分析并检验地理区位、气候条件、自然资源、地形地貌4类自然禀赋对城市GDP、人均GDP、人口规模的增长效应。研究发现:沿海虚拟变量和优越的交通区位条件对地区发展总体表现出显著的促进作用;以1月平均最低气温衡量的气候舒适度能够显著影响城市GDP增长和人口增长;矿产资源的增长效应与发展阶段相关,“资源诅咒”在经济转型期凸显;地形起伏度与集聚水平显著相关;沿海虚拟变量、1月平均最低气温、“资源诅咒”的阶段特征能够很好解释南北经济差距扩大现象;地区发展呈现集聚式均衡发展特征,即总量分异、人均收敛。在构建新发展格局的新阶段,推进区域协调发展重点需要立足自然禀赋促进分工和专业化、深化改革促进要素流动和资源统筹、优化营商环境激发市场主体发展活力。In view of the widening north-south economy gap since 2012,this paper analyzes the evolution of China’s regional development by using the economic and population center of gravity,demonstrates the relative importance of natural endowment to regional development due to the replicability of policy,the strong spillover of knowledge,and the high mobility of factors within a country,analyzes and empirically tests the growth effect of four types of natural endowment,including geographical location,climate,natural resources and land surface,on GDP,per capita GDP and urban size.The results show that Coast and traffic location indicators have significant growth effects on regional development;climate amenities measured by the average minimum temperature in January can significantly promote the growth of GDP and urban size;mineral resources have a growth effect with the development stage,and“resource curse”highlights in the period of economic transformation;the lower the RDLS,the higher the economic and population agglomeration.The Coast dummy variables,the average minimum temperature in January and the“resource curse”well explain the recent widening north-south gap.The regional development is characterized by agglomerating-balancing development,namely,the differentiation of total and the convergence of per capita.In the new era of building a new development pattern,for realizing the coordinated regional development,we need to promote labor division and specialization based on local natural endowment,deepen reform to promote the flow and overall planning of factors and resources,optimize business environment and stimulating development vitality of market entities.

关 键 词：自然禀赋 地区发展 南北差距 经济重心 人口重心 

分 类 号：F061.3[经济管理—政治经济学]