中美房地产信贷模式对居民消费的影响及房地产税率设计分析  

Analysis on influence of different credit mode between China and America on resident consumption and design of real estate tax rate

作　　者：吕敏[1] 牟丹 王文甫 LÜ Min;MU Dan;WANG Wenfu(School of Public Finance and Taxation,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu 611130,China;School of Economics,Sichuan University,Chengdu 611130,China)

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学财政税务学院,四川成都611130 [2]四川大学经济学院,四川成都611130

出　　处：《中国软科学》2022年第10期166-179,共14页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家社科基金项目“中国宏观经济不确定性测量、效应及其传到机制研究”(18BJL027);教育部人文社科基金项目“税收驱动小微企业内生发展的实证研究与政策设计”(20XJA790004)。

摘　　要：构建一个包含购房贷款的动态一般均衡模型,分析中美居民贷款模式差异对房价和消费关系的影响。研究发现:(1)住房偏好冲击会导致中国房价上涨时,消费下降;(2)中国居民采取购房贷款,会使得本来处于下降状态的消费进一步下降,住房偏好冲击通过购房贷款影响居民资金在购房、消费和偿还贷款三类支出中的配置;(3)美国居民更倾向于抵押贷款,其通过跨期收入转移促进了房屋偏好冲击时消费的增长;(4)中国累进房地产税税率设计可以缓解对居民消费的挤出效应。This study constructs a dynamic general equilibrium model including housing loans and analyzes the influence of the residential loan model on the relationship between housing prices and consumption.The results are as follow:(1)a housing preference shock will lead to a decline in consumption when house prices rise in China;(2)the impact of the shock in China has been amplified by residents who hold more loans for home purchases without refinancing;these shocks influence residents’capital allocation in different expenditures through housing loans;and(3)American residents prefer mortgage loans,which promotes consumption growth when housing preference shocks through intertemporal income transfer;(4)progressive property tax can alleviate the crowding out effect on consumption in China.

关 键 词：购房贷款 抵押贷款 居民消费不足 房地产税 居民资金分配 

分 类 号：F063.2[经济管理—政治经济学]